Mexican Peso slips as Banxico cut looms and US Dollar rebounds

Mexican Peso (MXN) is weakening against the US Dollar (USD) during the US session on Thursday, as traders recalibrate expectations around monetary policy in both countries ahead of a key rate decision from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

At the time of writing, USD/MXN is trading near 19.48 and up 0.49% on the day, as the US Dollar builds on its recovery and the Mexican Peso remains under pressure ahead of Banxico’s interest rate decision. 

While Banxico is widely expected to deliver a 50 basis-point cut, the market’s focus is on the tone of the statement and any signals about the future easing path. On the US side, soft inflation and retail sales data released Thursday have done little to derail the Dollar’s rebound, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on policy flexibility failed to materially shift the central bank's cautious stance.

Banxico rate cut expectations weigh on Peso as Fed signals stability

The policy divergence between Banxico and the Federal Reserve remains a key driver of USD/MXN price action. Banxico is expected to cut interest rates for the seventh consecutive meeting, lowering the benchmark rate from 9.0% to 8.5% in response to easing inflation and growing domestic economic challenges. In contrast, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining a restrictive stance as it seeks to bring inflation sustainably back to its 2% target.

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the need for a more adaptive policy framework in response to persistent supply shocks, he also reaffirmed the Fed’s firm focus on anchoring inflation expectations. His comments, paired with Thursday’s softer US inflation and retail data, initially tilted sentiment toward a more dovish Fed outlook. However, the US Dollar has regained ground as investors remain cautious ahead of further Fed communication, and as markets await Banxico’s guidance on the trajectory of future rate cuts. The Peso, meanwhile, has come under renewed pressure as traders weigh the implications of continued monetary easing in Mexico.

Mexican Peso daily digest: Banxico in focus

• Soft PPI inflation data: The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% MoM in April (vs. +0.2% expected), while headline PPI YoY eased to 2.4% from 2.7%, pointing to reduced price pressures at the wholesale level and reinforcing the disinflation trend.
• Core inflation weakens: Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, declined 0.5% MoM and slowed to 3.1% YoY (down from 4%), indicating broad-based cooling in underlying inflation and increasing the likelihood of future Fed policy easing.
• Retail sales mixed: Retail sales rose 0.1% MoM, narrowly beating expectations, but the control group fell 0.2% vs. a 0.5% forecast—highlighting soft underlying consumption and potential downside risks to Q2 GDP.
• Banxico rate cuts: The Bank of Mexico has cut interest rates at six consecutive meetings since August. A 50 bps cut on Thursday would mark a cumulative 250 bps (2.50%) of easing over seven meetings.
• Fed stance: In contrast, the Fed has reduced rates three times in the same period, lowering its benchmark rate to the 4.50%–4.25 % range from 5.50%–5.25 %.
• Market sensitivity to surprises: Softer US data has revived market speculation about potential Fed rate cuts later this year. If future data continues to weaken, it could pressure the US Dollar, while stronger readings would likely reinforce the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance.
• Trade tensions with the US: Rising US-Mexico trade tensions threaten Mexico’s export-reliant economy, where over 80% of exports go to the US. Tariffs on goods such as steel and aluminium could disrupt supply chains, dampen investor sentiment, and weigh on growth.
• Tariff policy developments: The US has imposed 25% tariffs on certain Mexican imports not covered by the USMCA, citing national security and drug enforcement concerns, adding uncertainty to the bilateral trade environment.
• USMCA review proposal: According to Reuters, Mexico’s Economy Minister has proposed initiating an early review of the USMCA

USD/MXN rebounds from recent lows and tests resistance amid shifting momentum

USD/MXN has bounced from recent lows, climbing back above key psychological support at 19.40 and above the April low. The pair has reversed its earlier breakdown and is now challenging resistance levels following a decisive move off the lower boundary of the prior consolidation range, highlighted in the purple box. This rebound suggests a shift in near-term momentum, tempering the prevailing bearish trend.

The recovery places immediate focus on the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 19.54, and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October–February rally at 19.57. A sustained break above this zone would signal a more meaningful bullish reversal, potentially opening the path toward the psychological 19.60 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement at 19.72.

On the downside, former resistance at 19.40 now acts as initial support. A failure to hold this level would reexpose the 19.30 area, with stronger support resting at the October low of 19.11—a critical medium-term level. A break below 19.11 would confirm renewed bearish momentum and open the door toward the 19.00 psychological handle.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has firmed to 41.38, signaling stabilizing momentum but leaving further upside potential before overbought conditions are reached. Overall, the current rebound marks a potential inflection point, with upcoming Banxico guidance and market reaction to Fed policy outlook likely to determine whether the recovery extends or stalls.

USD/MXN daily chart