Markets: Fed is most important in the week ahead – Nordea Markets

In view of analysts at Nordea Markets, most focus next week will be given to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, as the market will be looking for signs on how, when and if the quantitative tightening will end.

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“We judge that the current consensus expects the Fed to end QT by Q4-2019. Any hints on an earlier exit from the QT programme will give our slightly positive EUR/USD view a boost.”

“In the Euro area Draghi and co will be crossing their fingers for a rebound in PMIs next week (Friday), but if Sweden is as good a guide as in 2018, then the Euro-area slowdown is not over yet. We expect another weak reading with risks on the downside of consensus. However, at the same time we would like to highlight that some of our models actually hint of an upcoming trough in Euro-area PMIs three to four months from now (no models showed that just a few months back).”

“In Scandinavia Norges Bank will meet on Thursday. A March hike from Norges Bank is a done deal (also for markets), but markets clearly expect a dovish ECB to spill over to fewer Norwegian rate hikes going forward. The big question is the extent to which Norges Bank will accept letting international factors overweigh domestic factors in the new rate path.

We think they will i) hike by 25 bp, ii) keep a December 2019 hike fairly alive in the rate path, iii) take down the long end of the rate path.”