Market movers for the week ahead – Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank point out that today we have US retail sales to look to, following on from a Michigan consumer confidence survey Friday that was weaker than expected.

Key Quotes

“Consensus is 0.4% headline and 0.2% ex-autos. We also have the US NAHB housing market survey, and a slew of Fed speak from Kaplan, Kashkari, and Bostic.”

“Tomorrow it’s all about Chinese Q1 GDP, which will of course be strong. After all, China doesn’t do bad data, especially under its new management. (Case in point: FX reserves officially rose USD8bn in March to stay around USD3.1 trillion for a seventh month; that was despite a trade deficit in the month of USD5bn not a surplus of USD25bn, the usual services deficit of USD20bn, no serious FDI, no major inwards portfolio investment, and no big change in either bond yields or FX rates. But like all Chinese data, it’s a take-it-or-leave-it number.)”

“Anyway, back to Q1 GDP: it will likely be the consensus 6.8% y-o-y (and why not higher while we are at it?), underlining the inherent superiority of socialism with Chinese characteristics over the decaying husk of Western capitalism. Or something like that. We will also see China’s retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment. Meanwhile, in Europe it’s UK unemployment and the German ZEW survey, and in the US housing starts, industrial production, and more Fed speak from Harker, Evans, and Bostic.”

“Wednesday it’s Japanese trade data, Chinese house prices, UK CPI and PPI, Eurozone flash CPI, the BoC rate decision, and the Fed’s Beige Book.”

“Thursday has New Zealand CPI, Aussie jobs, UK retail sales, and US ADP employment and the Philly Fed survey.”

“Friday sees Japanese CPI, Canadian retail sales and CPI, Eurozone consumer confidence, and the Fed’s Evans speaking on the economy.”

“We can also expect lots of political theatre on multiple fronts,…and hopefully no war.”