Malaysia: Exports jumped in March – UOB

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting comment on the latest Exports data in Malaysia.

Key Takeaways

“Gross export growth strengthened to 25.4% y/y in Mar (from +16.8% in Feb), higher than our estimate (9.0%) and Bloomberg consensus (10.4%). Gross import growth also accelerated to 29.9% y/y (from +18.3% in Feb). This brought the trade surplus to MYR26.7bn (from +MYR19.8bn in Feb).”

“Exports were lifted by robust growth for electrical & electronics and commodity-based products in particular palm oil, palm-oil based products, petroleum products, LNG, and crude petroleum. In 1Q22, exports gained 22.2% (4Q21: +29.0%) while imports advanced 25.2% (4Q21: +29.6%). Higher imports over exports led to a narrower trade surplus of MYR65.1bn (4Q21: +MYR76.2bn) which we expect to translate into a current account surplus of MYR16.0bn in 1Q22 (4Q21: +MYR15.2bn).”

“Given the export strength to date, we have raised our full-year export growth forecast to 8.0% (from 2.0% previously; BNM est: +10.9%; 2021: +26.0%) albeit mindful of prevailing risks from geopolitical risks, China’s zero-COVID policy, ongoing supply chain disruptions, and tighter global financial conditions. The risk of second order impact on Malaysia from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has emerged following the expansion of sanctions on Russia and potential escalation of Ukraine conflict.”

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

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