Lagarde speech: Either we cut or pause but we will be data dependent to extreme
In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that they must be flexible and prepared to take action, per Reuters.
Key takeaways
"I'm sure there is scope with negotiations with Trump."
"Either we cut or pause but we will be data dependent to extreme."
"Europe should lower internal trade barriers."
"Tariff impact on growth is detrimental."
"Disinflationary path is clearly on its way."
"I don't think Europe has been unfair to US in trade."
"Euro strength is counterintuitive."
"We're heading to target over course of 2025."
"I can't say there's definitive downside risks materialisation on inflation."
"Inflation projection for 2025 likely at 2.1%."
"The net impact of tariffs on inflation is to be seen."
"We'll be as predictable as is possible."
Market reaction
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure following these comments. At the time of press, the pair was down 0.4% on the day at 1.1465.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
