JPY: Weakness persists ahead of election – OCBC Bank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The report from OCBC Bank discusses the ongoing weakness of the JPY amid fiscal uncertainty ahead of Japan's election on February 8. The contrasting behavior of JGB yields suggests differing interpretations among investors regarding Japan's fiscal outlook. The report highlights potential intervention risks and the implications of the election results on the JPY's stability.

Fiscal uncertainty weighs on JPY

"Verbal intervention risks could rise as the 8 February Japan election keeps fiscal uncertainty weighing on the JPY. Intervention concerns should help cap USDJPY upside both before and after the vote."

"Fiscal worries typically weaken the JPY and push long-end JGB yields higher. The contrast between a relatively calm JGB market and a struggling JPY is notable, hinting at diverging views between bond and FX investors on potential LDP fiscal direction after a likely ruling coalition win."

"A majority win would strengthen PM Takaichi’s mandate to pursue 'Sanaenomics' (fiscal stimulus), which could pressure the JPY. However, the JPY could stabilise if a clear LDP majority reduces the need for looser fiscal or monetary measures to court opposition support."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD advaces beyond 1.3450 after BoE decision, US Q2 GDP

GBP/USD gains positive momentum on Thursday, surpassing 1.3450 and trading at fresh multi-week highs. The Bank of England decided to maintain the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%. The MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold, with the 3 dissenters favoring a rate hike. US Q2 GDP missing expectations helped the pair advance, while renewed US Dollar weakness across the FX board pushed the pair further up ahead of the monthly close.

EUR/USD confortable around 1.1530, highest in six weeks

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1530 in the American session on Thursday, reaching fresh six-week highs. The US Dollar is in sell-off mode, with multiple factors weighing on the American currency. Not only did the Federal Reserve vote divided to keep rates on hold on Wednesday, creating doubts about a September hike, but US Q2 GDP missed expectations. A suspected JPY intervention adds pressure on the Greenback.

Gold recovers the $4,100 level as US Dollar weakens further

Gold trades just above $4,100 amid a US Dollar sell-off. The Greenback enjoyed some near-term demand following Wednesday's post-FOMC downfall, but was unable to retain its gains. The preliminary estimate of the US Q2 GDP showed the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.5%, missing the market's expectations of 2.1%.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP builds recovery momentum as whales increase exposure

Ripple (XRP) rises toward the pivotal $1.10 resistance on Thursday, marking three consecutive days of gains. This neutral-to-slightly bullish outlook follows the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

The FOMC: Rates left on hold; dollar falls as Warsh fails to vote for hike

The Fed kept interest rates on hold today, defying a 30% chance in the Fed Funds Futures market that rates would rise. The Committee voted 9-3 to keep rates on hold, with governors Kashkari, Hammack and Logan all voting to hike rates due to concerns about inflation. The immediate market reaction has been a sharp drop in the USD on a broad basis.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.