JPY struggles amid political uncertainty – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Picking a bottom on the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains hard. Speculation that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will dissolve the parliament and call snap elections has continued to rise over the weekend, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

BoJ intervention seen likely only at higher levels

"In theory, such a move would be aimed at securing a stronger majority, which, if achieved, is often appreciated by the domestic currency. But for now, political uncertainty fueled more speculative USD/JPY buying on Friday, with the Finance Minister's tolerance band continuing to be tested. Interestingly, the yen is the only currency in G10 not gaining from the Fed’s news."

"Based on Japan’s latest FX interventions in July 2024, we still suspect there may be a preference to wait for a USD-negative market event (previously a cool US CPI report) to intervene. The spot also traded at almost 162 when intervention started, around 2.5% above the current 157.9."

"If Fed risk abates, USD/JPY continues to face upside risks that could extend to 160 – a level that should see some resistance as some identify it as the line in the sand for the Bank of Japan."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.