JPY: Less than 20% of a BoJ rate hike on Thursday – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

After a raft of source-based stories over the last two weeks, the market now attaches a less than 20% probability to a 25bp Bank of Japan hike this Thursday. USD/JPY looks biased to the 155 area ahead of the rate meeting, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

USD/JPY looks biased to the 155 area

“Our team thinks the chances are higher. However, helping to swing the BoJ's decision may be the level of USD/JPY. This has crept up to 154 recently, helped by both these source stories plus the sell-off in the US Treasury market.”

“While our medium-term valuation models show the yen as the most undervalued currency in the G10 space, our baseline forecasts do, however, show USD/JPY moving steadily higher through 2025 as US Treasury yields rise. The yen will remain the hedge against the inevitable periods of risk asset corrections in 2025, but barring surprise US macro weakness, 2025 should be bullish for USD/JPY.”

“For this week, we think USD/JPY looks biased to the 155 area ahead of Thursday's BoJ rate meeting.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD: US Dollar comeback in the makes?

The US Dollar stands victorious at the end of another week, with the EUR/USD pair trading near a four-week low of 1.1742, while the USD retains its strength despite some discouraging American data released at the end of the week. The pair edged higher on Friday, after the United States Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump's tariffs, although the advance is not enough to change the latest USD flow.

GBP/USD braces for more pain, as 200-day SMA tested

GBP/USD broke the previous week’s consolidation to the downside, as sellers returned with pomp, smashing the major back toward the levels last seen in late January. The pair tested bids below the 1.3450 barrier as the US Dollar strength largely played out throughout the week, while the Pound Sterling stepped back on expectations of divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve.

Gold climbs to weekly tops, approaches $5,100/oz

Gold keeps the bid tone well in place at the end of the week, now hitting fresh weekly highs and retargeting the key $5,100 mark per troy ounce. The move higher in the yellow metal comes in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and modest losses in the US Dollar.

Week ahead: Markets brace for heightened volatility as event risk dominates

Dollar strength dominates markets as risk appetite remains subdued. A Supreme Court ruling, geopolitics and Fed developments are in focus. Pivotal Nvidia earnings on Wednesday as investors question tech sector weakness. Yen and aussie diverge; both pound and euro could recoup their losses.

Broadening drivers of growth: Unpacking GDP and looking ahead

This week’s data delivered a familiar theme with an important twist. The U.S. economy continues to be shaped by powerful forces in high-tech and AI-related investment, but recent releases suggest the growth story may finally be broadening. At the same time, trade flows are moving in a less supportive direction, reminding us that not all parts of the economy are pulling in sync.

Ripple bulls defend key support amid waning retail demand and ETF inflows

XRP ticks up above $1.40 support, but waning retail demand suggests caution. XRP attracts $4 million in spot ETF inflows on Thursday, signaling renewed institutional investor interest.