Is Upstart Holdings (UPST) ready for the next big rally in 2025-26?

Upstart Holdings, Inc., (UPST) operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal lending, Auto lending & others. It comes under Financial services sector and trades as “UPST” ticker at Nasdaq.

UPST is trading higher in proposed nest Elliott wave structure from May-2023 low of $11.93. Currently, it favors upside in ((1)) of III & should remain supported against 4.04.2025 low of $31.40. Once it breaks above 2.13.2025 high, it will confirm 5 swings to see more upside.

UPST – Elliott Wave latest daily view

It made all time high of $401.49 in October-2021 & all time low of $11.93 in May-2023 since inception. Above $11.93 low, it appears nesting or can be diagonal move with one more push above February-2025 high. Once it confirms 5 swings higher from May-2023 low, we like to buy the next pullback. It placed (I) at $72.58 high in August-2023 & (II) at $19.84 low in November-2023 as dip pullback. Above there, it placed I of (III) at $96.43 high in February-2025 & II at $31.40 low in April-2025. Currently, it favors upside in ((1)) of III & expect short term upside to finish it before correcting next.

Within I, it placed ((1)) at $49.62 high, ((2)) at $20.60 low, ((3)) at $86.07 high, ((4)) at $55.20 low & ((5)) at $96.43 high as I of (III). Below I high, it ended ((A)) at $45.01 low, ((B)) at $56.10 high & ((C)) at $31.40 low as truncated move ending II against November-2023. Above there, it ended (1) of ((1)) at $55.05 high, (2) at $43.28 low & favors upside in 5 of (3) before soon correcting in (4). Within (3), it ended 1 at $61.52 high, 2 at $51.59 low, 3 at $81.48 high, 4 at $68.05 low & favors upside in 5.

Wave (3) already reached the 1.618 extension level of (1), but can see small upside before correcting in (4). It expects 5 to extend in to $84.68 – $89.82 area, while stay above $73.00 low to finish (3). If it breaks below $73.00 low, it should be correcting in (4) in 3 or 7 swings. It expects two more highs to finish the cycle from April-2025 low before correcting next. We like to buy the pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings in ((2)), once 5 swings confirmed. The cycle from May-2023 low can be diagonal, if makes a new high above February-2025 before dip pullback that break below April-2025 low. While above April-2025 low, it should be nest.