Indonesia: Trade balance figures back to positive – UOB

Enrico Tanuwidjaja, Economist at UOB Group, reviewed the latest trade balance results in Indonesia.

Key Quotes

“Indonesia posted a surprise trade surplus of USD2.34bn in February 2020 (vs. Bloomberg consensus of -USD125mn, and vs. January’s deficit of -USD637mn – revised figure), as non-oil and gas exports surged while non-oil and gas import contracted amidst disruption to the global value chain due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. There are also some base effects given very weak exports in Feb-Apr 2019 (average: -11.5% yoy during those weak months). This marks the biggest trade surplus since September 2011.”

“Indonesia's exports rose by 11.0% y/y in February vs. January’s -2.2% (revised figure), driven by the increase of non-oil and gas exports which grew by 14.6% y/y vs. 1.0% growth in the same period.”

“Indonesia’s imports contracted by 5.1% y/y in February 2020 vs. -4.8% in the previous month. Imports levels in December was recorded at USD11.6bn, with the non-oil and gas imports amounting to USD9.9bn (February’s -7.4% y/y vs. January’s -7.9%).”