IEA: Stage is set for OPEC+ to start unwinding cuts in H2 2021, WTI off the lows

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted the global oil demand to rise strongly, staging a set for the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) to begin unwinding the oil output cuts in the second half of this year.

Additional takeaways

OECD crude oil stocks in dec fell by 44.6 million (mln) barrels to 3.063 bln barrels, 138 mln barrels above five-year average.

Global refinery throughput declined by 110,000 bpd in December, annual growth to resume in Q2 2021.

Global implied stock drawdowns accelerated to 2.24 mln bpd in Q4 2020 from 1.56 mln bpd in Q3.

Global oil supply set to rise 590,000 bpd in Jan as OPEC+ cuts eased and non-OPEC+ pumped more.

2021 demand forecast largely unchanged, down 200,000 bpd from last month due to changes in historical data.

Global oil demand is set to grow by 5.4 mln bpd in 2021 to 96.4 mln bpd.

Oil demand is expected to fall by 1 mln bpd in q1 2021 from already low q4 2020 levels.

Covid-19 lockdowns, spread of more contagious variants weigh heavily on near-term recovery.

A rapid stock drawdown is anticipated during the second half of 2021.

Demand set to rise strongly, expects only modest growth in non-OPEC supply.

Market reaction

WTI extends its range play into the European session, although bounced-off session lows of $58.22 on the release of the IEA monthly report.

The US oil now trades at $58.45, still down 0.43% on the day.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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