Hydroxychloroquine drug championed by Trump for coronavirus shows no benefit, poss. harmful – Reuters

Reuters reports that an old malaria drug touted by US President Donald Trump as a “game-changer” in the fight against the coronavirus provided no benefit and a potentially higher risk of death for patients at US veterans hospitals, according to an analysis that has been submitted for expert review.

Key notes

Decades old hydroxychloroquine has been widely used in an attempt to alter the course of the COVID-19 respiratory illness based on anecdotal reports that it may provide some benefit.

An analysis of Veterans Health Administration (VA) data found that 28% of 97 patients given hydroxychloroquine along with standard care died, compared with a death rate of 11% for the 158 patients that did not receive the drug.

The death rate was 22% for the 113 patients given hydroxychloroquine plus the antibiotic azithromycin.

After taking patients’ individual characteristics into account, researchers calculated that the risk of death was more than double in those who received hydroxychloroquine.

Meanwhile, in other updates, Deutsche Bank research highlighted the following points:

• Novartis announced it has reached an agreement with the US FDA to proceed with a Phase-three clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine with around 440 patients.
• The first UK vaccine candidate to prevent coronavirus infection is set to begin clinical testing in human volunteers next week. Its developers at the University of Oxford hope to have 1m vaccine doses ready by September to carry out large-scale clinical trials during the autumn and, if all goes well, to produce 100m doses by the end of the year.
• It appears that the virus is relatively stable, according to researchers, who have studied about 10,000 genome sequences. That is good news for developing a vaccine, according to epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove, who was speaking at World Health Organization press briefing. If a virus continuously mutates, vaccines can be ineffective.
• Several studies suggest that only a single-digit percentage has been infected worldwide, Van Kerkhove said, meaning a large proportion of the global population is still vulnerable.

Market implications

Good news and bad news there. As nations try to get back to work, the risk of contagion is higher and considering that "only a single-digit percentage has been infected worldwide," the shutters on the economy could come down again, and fast, resulting in a prolonged recession, renewed prospects of depression and much–much lower asset prices, initially reflected in global equities.