H2 2018: Seven key risks ahead – JP Morgan


Analysts at JP Morgan highlight seven key risks, in its latest outlook report, as we head towards the second half of this year.  

7 key risks:

  1. “Trade conflicts become an economically-significant trade war; 
  2. US politics becomes even more complicated (Mueller investigation, mid-term elections); 
  3. US core PCE inflation overshoots 2%, triggering faster Fed tightening;
  4. OPEC-Russia relaxation of oil accord becomes disorderly; 
  5. Italy over eases fiscal policy and courts a funding crisis; 
  6. US's strike-first-negotiate-later approach to diplomacy brings military entanglement in South China Sea, Korea, Iran or Syria; 
  7. Liquidity risk turns a minor macro event into a major financial one.”

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