Gold edges up as Fed rate cut bets, softer USD and geopolitical risks support prices
- Gold edges higher amid a supportive fundamental backdrop, though it lacks follow-through.
- Trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions continue to act as a tailwind for the commodity.
- Fed rate cut bets and the US government shutdown undermine the USD, and also lend support.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers during the first half of the European session and, for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from the all-time peak, touched on Friday. Persistent trade-related uncertainties, rising geopolitical risks, and concerns that a prolonged US government shutdown would affect the economic performance continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal. Furthermore, dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations underpin demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.
In fact, traders have fully priced in two more interest rate cuts by the US central bank this year, which fails to assist the US Dollar (USD) to capitalize on Friday's modest bounce. This, along with global fiscal concerns, central bank buying, and strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for Gold. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump's comment on Friday eased concerns about an all-out US-China trade war and might cap further gains for the precious metal.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold struggles to lure buyers as Trump's comments ease trade-war fears
- US President Donald Trump said on Friday that a full-scale tariff on China would be unsustainable and also confirmed a meeting with his Chinese counterpart. This, in turn, prompted some profit-taking around the safe-haven Gold, though the corrective slide lacked any follow-through.
- Investors remain worried about economic risks stemming from rising geopolitical tensions and the US government shutdown. Adding to this, concerns over fiscal discipline and mounting government debt, particularly in the US, act as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal.
- Ukrainian drones struck a gas processing plant run by the state-owned Gazprom company in southern Russia. A separate drone strike hit Russia’s Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in the Samara region near Orenburg. This keeps the risk of a further escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war.
- Meanwhile, the federal government shutdown has now stretched into its 20th day, with Republicans locked in a standoff with Democrats over health care subsidies. The Senate is preparing for its 11th vote on the stopgap funding bill later this Monday amid the still unresolved impasse.
- According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut at each of the US Federal Reserve's policy meetings in October and in December. This keeps a lid on the US Dollar's recovery on Friday and further supports the non-yielding yellow metal.
- As the October FOMC policy meeting looms, Fed officials have entered a blackout period, leaving the USD at the mercy of trade-related developments. Traders might also opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due for release on Friday.
Gold needs to weaken below $4,210-4,200 support to back the case for any meaningful correction
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair showed some resilience below the $4,210-$4,200 confluence on Friday – comprising the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October 9-17 rally. The subsequent move up, however, faces a hurdle near the 23.6% Fibo. retracement level, around the $4,275 region. The latter should now act as a pivotal point for intraday traders, above which the Gold could climb further beyond the $4,300 mark, towards the $4,325 horizontal resistance. The momentum could extend further towards retesting the all-time peak, around the $4,379-4,380 zone, touched on Friday.
On the flip side, the Asian session trough, around the $4,219-4,218 region could offer support to the XAU/USD pair ahead of the $4,200 round figure and Friday's swing low, around the $4,186 zone. Some follow-through selling below the $4,163-4,162 area, or the 50% retracement level, could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $4,100 mark. The latter coincides with the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level, which, if broken decisively, will suggest that the commodity has topped out and pave the way for a deeper corrective decline.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Oct 24, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 3.1%
Previous: 2.9%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
