Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD support at $4,000 remains dangerously close

Gold recovery found sellers at $4,160 before retreating to the $4,120 area.
Easing trade war fears and a firm US Dollar have crushed precious metals in the last few days.
XAU/USD is on a downward correction with bears focusing on the $4,000 support area.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

Gold bounced up after reaching the target of a Double Top pattern, at $4,005 on Tuesday, but upside attempts have been halted way below previous support, at $4,185, which leaves the immediate bearish trend intact and the $4,000 support area at a short distance.

The announcement that US President Trump will meet its Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in South Korea next week and the more conciliatory tone of Trump's latest comments towards the Asian country have boosted hopes of a trade deal, which has improved market sentiment, sending precious metals tumbling.

Technical Analysis: Gold’s bearish correction has finally arrived

What goes up has to eventually come down, and Gold is no exception. The precious metal had rallied nearly 35% in the last two months and is now performing a well-awaited correction. The double top at $4,380 and Tuesday’s bearish engulfing candle in the daily chart confirm that view.

The rejection at the $4,160 on Wednesday’s early European session highlights the bearish momentum. The 4-hour RSI is low but not yet at oversold levels, and the USDollar Index is picking up, which adds pressure on the yellow metal and suggests that a retest of the $4,000 support is on the cards.

Further down, the $3945 area, where the pair found support on October 7, 9, and 10, emerges as the next target ahead of the October 2 low, at $3,845. To the upside, the intraday high at the $4,160 area and the October 17 low at $4,185 are closing the path towards the all-time high at $4,380.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

GBP/USD clings to multi-day peaks below 1.3500

GBP/USD trades with marked gains on Friday, now giving away some gains following an earlier surpass of the key 1.3500 yardstick. Indeed, Cable gathers fresh steam amid the strong offered stance in the Greenback, all after US NFP badly missed expectations in July.

EUR/USD: Post-NFP bounce falters around 1.1580

EUR/USD reverses Thursday’s decline and trades with solid gains in the 1.1560 region, or two-month peaks, on Friday. The pair’s firm performance comes in a context of a sharp correction in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess disheartening US NFP readings.

How Wall Street rigs the game [Video]

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Peter Antico and Sean Stone to discuss the Paradigm of Money - an in-depth expose of financial market corruption, from naked shorting to the two-tier system that protects Wall Street.

XRP Price Forecast: XRP nears critical $1.00 support

Ripple (XRP) remains pressured on Friday, trading around $1.03 at the time of writing. The token appears to hold this current level as support but lacks a catalyst to sustain a knee-jerk rebound toward the next key resistance at $1.10.

Is Gold about to enter its biggest bull run since 2020?

Gold has stormed back into the spotlight and its next move could leave late buyers chasing. On August 5, the yellow metal surged almost 7% – roughly $174 – to close near $4,308 an ounce, posting one of its biggest daily advances in recent history. A weaker U.S dollar, falling Treasury yields, changing Federal Reserve expectations and renewed safe-haven demand all struck at once.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.