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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD refreshes daily low, eyes $1,700 amid Fed rate-hike jitters

  • Gold struggles to preserve early gains to a one-week low and turns lower for the second straight day.
  • Hawkish Fed expectations, rising US bond yields, resurgent USD demand exert downward pressure.
  • The risk-on impulse overshadows recession fears and fails to lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. 

Gold witnessed an intraday turnaround from a one-week high, around the $1,727 region touched earlier this Tuesday and turns lower for the second successive day. Spot prices refresh daily low during the early North American session, albeit have managed to hold above the $1,700 round-figure mark.

The risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - turns out to be a key factor weighing on the safe-haven gold and causing the bearish reversal after gold's early strong start to the day. Apart from this, the emergence of fresh US dollar buying attracts fresh selling around the dollar-denominated commodity and contributes to the intraday decline.

In fact, the USD Index has shot back closer to a two-decade high touched earlier this week and remains well supported by hawkish Fed expectations. Investors seem convinced that the Fed will continue to tighten its monetary policy more aggressively to tame inflation. Moreover, the current market pricing indicates a greater chance of a 75 bps rate hike in September.

This, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields, which provides an additional lift to the buck and contributes to driving flows away from the non-yielding gold. That said, growing recession fears, along with economic headwinds stemming from fresh COVID-19 curbs in China, might keep a lid on the optimistic move and lend support to the precious metal.

Nevertheless, the bias still seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for a further depreciating move. Some follow-through selling below the $1,700 mark will reaffirm the negative outlook and make gold vulnerable to retesting last week's swing low, around the $1,689 region, before eventually dropping to the $1,680 area, or the YTD low touched in July.

Technical levels to watch

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price1710.43
Today Daily Change-1.48
Today Daily Change %-0.09
Today daily open1711.91
 
Trends
Daily SMA201751.41
Daily SMA501752.06
Daily SMA1001805.12
Daily SMA2001834.82
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1715.81
Previous Daily Low1707.8
Previous Weekly High1745.58
Previous Weekly Low1688.92
Previous Monthly High1807.93
Previous Monthly Low1709.68
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1710.86
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1712.75
Daily Pivot Point S11707.87
Daily Pivot Point S21703.83
Daily Pivot Point S31699.86
Daily Pivot Point R11715.88
Daily Pivot Point R21719.85
Daily Pivot Point R31723.89

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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