Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovers some lost ground around $1,940, US CPI data eyed


  • Gold price posts a modest recovery around $1,940 on the consolidation of USD.
  • The stronger-than-expected CPI data this week might raise the odds that Fed to hike the rate again in December.
  • The fear of economic growth in China might drag the gold price lower.
  • Gold traders will closely monitor the US inflation data on Tuesday.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory during the early Asian session on Monday. The consolidation of the US Dollar (USD) lends some support to the precious metal. However, the higher US Treasury bond yield might cap gold's upside in the next session. At press time, the gold price is trading around $1,940, up 0.22% on the day.

On Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said she is not ready to say yet whether the central bank is done raising its interest rate cycle to bring inflation back to 2%. While, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that if it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, Fed will not hesitate to do so. Traders will take more cues from the key data this week, including the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The stronger-than-expected data might raise the odds that Fed to hike the rate again in its December meeting. It's worth noting that rising interest rates raise the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets, implying a negative outlook for precious metals.

Furthermore, concern over economic growth in China might drag the gold price lower as China is the world's largest gold producer and consumer. Last week, the Chinese CPI dropped 0.2% in October from the previous reading of 0%. This week’s Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be released and these data could offer some hints about China’s economic condition.

The key event will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. The monthly CPI reading is expected to ease to 0.1% in October while the core CPI is estimated to remain unchanged at 0.3%. These events could give a clear direction to the gold price.

 

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 1940.72
Today Daily Change 4.56
Today Daily Change % 0.24
Today daily open 1936.16
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1969.5
Daily SMA50 1923.15
Daily SMA100 1927.21
Daily SMA200 1934.69
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1960.9
Previous Daily Low 1933.04
Previous Weekly High 1993.18
Previous Weekly Low 1933.04
Previous Monthly High 2009.49
Previous Monthly Low 1810.51
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1943.68
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1950.26
Daily Pivot Point S1 1925.83
Daily Pivot Point S2 1915.51
Daily Pivot Point S3 1897.97
Daily Pivot Point R1 1953.69
Daily Pivot Point R2 1971.23
Daily Pivot Point R3 1981.55

 

 

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