Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD under pressure below critical $1,760

Update: Gold has been mixed at the start of the week, recently enjoying some hidden bullish divergence on the hourly time frame which has given the yellow metal some support in the US session. As we enter the final hour on Wall Street, the precious metal is trading flat at $1,751 and has travelled between a low of $1,744.88 and $1,760.91 on the day so far. 

Nevertheless, the pressure is on for the bulls with the price technically bearish below the 4-hour 200, 50 and 20 EMAs that are aligned bearishly with RSI below 50. If the price fails to overcome $1,760 on a closing basis in the coming sessions, this could give rise to further supply and a downside extension towards $1,730. The fundamental risks ahead stem from hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve speakers. In this regard, this could be led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will join Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in speaking before Congress on Tuesday.

For a comprehensive analysis of the gold price, see more here:

End of update

Gold gained some positive traction on the first day of a new trading week, albeit lacked any follow-through and met with some fresh supply near the $1,760 region. The intraday pullback was sponsored by a combination of factors and dragged the XAU/USD to fresh daily lows, around the $1,744 area during the early North American session. A generally positive tone around the equity markets turned out to be a key factor that capped the upside for the safe-haven precious metal. Apart from this, a modest US dollar strength further weighed on the dollar-denominated gold.

The USD continued drawing some support from prospects for an early interest rate hike by the Fed and got an additional boost from a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields. It is worth recalling that the so-called dot plot indicated policymakers' inclination to raise interest rates in 2022. The repricing of the likely timing of the Fed's policy tightening pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to the 1.50% threshold for the first time since June. This was seen as another factor that acted as a headwind for the non-yielding gold.

On the economic data front, the US Durable Goods Orders increased 1.8% in August and surpassed expectations for a 0.7% rise by a big margin. Adding to this, the previous month's reading was also revised higher to show a 0.5% growth as against a modest decline reported earlier. Additional details revealed that orders excluding transportation rose 0.2% vs. 0.5% expected. This, however, was offset by stronger non-defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft – a closely watched proxy for business spending plans.

That said, persistent worries about potential risks from the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group helped limit deeper losses for the XAU/USD, at least for the time being. Nevertheless, gold prices remain well within the striking distance of the lowest level since August 11, around the $1,738 region touched last Thursday and remains vulnerable to slide further. However, it will be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of the recent downward trajectory from the 1,832-34 heavy supply zone.

Technical outlook

From current levels, a subsequent slide below monthly swing lows is likely to find some support near the $1,730-28 horizontal zone. The next relevant support is pegged near the $1,700 round-figure mark, which if broken decisively will set the stage for a further near-term depreciating move for gold.

On the flip side, momentum beyond the daily swing highs might confront stiff resistance near the $1,775-76 area ahead of the $1,780 horizontal support breakpoint. A sustained strength beyond has the potential to lift the XAU/USD further and allow bulls to aim back to reclaim the $1,800 mark.

Levels to watch


Today last price 1752.63
Today Daily Change 2.01
Today Daily Change % 0.11
Today daily open 1750.62
Daily SMA20 1788.28
Daily SMA50 1790.52
Daily SMA100 1813.9
Daily SMA200 1805.52
Previous Daily High 1757.71
Previous Daily Low 1740.51
Previous Weekly High 1787.35
Previous Weekly Low 1737.83
Previous Monthly High 1831.81
Previous Monthly Low 1687.78
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1751.14
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1747.08
Daily Pivot Point S1 1741.52
Daily Pivot Point S2 1732.41
Daily Pivot Point S3 1724.32
Daily Pivot Point R1 1758.72
Daily Pivot Point R2 1766.81
Daily Pivot Point R3 1775.92



Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD remains bid and approaches 1.1650 after US data

The persevering selling pressure in the greenback helps EUR/USD advancing to the area of daily highs near 1.1650 on Friday. The data from the US showed on Friday that the economic activity in the private sector continued to expand at a robust pace in early October.


GBP/USD treads water near 1.3800 after mixed UK data

GBP/USD came under bearish pressure in the early European session after the data from the UK showed an unexpected contraction in September Retail Sales. However, the British pound managed to pare its losses with the Markit PMI figures surpassing analysts' estimates.


GBP/USD treads water near 1.3800 after mixed UK data

GBP/USD came under bearish pressure in the early European session after the data from the UK showed an unexpected contraction in September Retail Sales. However, the British pound managed to pare its losses with the Markit PMI figures surpassing analysts' estimates.


Traders swap Dogecoin for Shiba Inu on rumors of Robinhood listing

Shiba Inu coin reached over a million new traders through its listing on Novadax, and CoinFLEX. A crypto exchange offered traders "Flip DOGE for SHIB" and exchanged Dogecoins for Shiba Inu tokens. 

Read more

Apple talks over battery supplies for EV stall-Reuters

Apple (AAPL) is on a steady move higher ahead of results next week. We have had solid earnings from big names already such as Tesla (TSLA) and Netflix (NFLX), but Apple is the biggest one of all and will be the highlight of the earnings season for many.

Read more