Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends recovery towards $1,800 as hawkish Fed bets trim

Gold price (XAU/USD) has picked bids below $1,790.00 and is extending its recovery above the immediate hurdle of $1,792.00 amid a broader risk-on in the global market. The precious metal is expected to continue its upside run-up after a healthy correction to near $1,808.00 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has got a sigh of relief after a downward shift in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

On Wednesday, the US Inflation landed at 8.5%, lower than the expectations of 8.7% and the prior release of 9.1%. Oil prices were vulnerable in July and they have been the real catalyst behind the soaring price pressures. Well, the downside pressure on the oil prices is temporary as the Russia-Ukraine war has made a serious dent in the oil supply for a prolonged period. And, the Fed needs a series of declines in the inflation rate to shift its stance to ‘neutral’.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is oscillating around 105.20, however, the downside remains favored as a lower inflation rate has trimmed the odds of an extremely ‘hawkish’ stance by Fed chair Jerome Powell in September monetary policy meeting.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price has sensed a decent buying interest after declining to near the lower portion of the Rising Channel at $1,788.00, formed on the four-hour scale. The upper portion of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from July 22 high at $1,739.37 while the lower portion is plotted from July 27 low at $1,711.55.

A golden cross, represented by the 50-and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,768.90 adds to the upside filters.

While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 range pertaining to a mild correction. The gold bulls have lost the upside momentum for a while, however, the bullish bias is far from over.

Gold four-hour chart