Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates losses below $4,000
- Gold appreciates from $3,920 lows but is lacking follow-through beyond the $4,000 level.
- Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish comments boosted US yields and added pressure on Gold on Wednesday.
- Technically, the pair remains on a bearish correction, that might extend to the $3,800 area.
Gold is going through a mild recovery on Thursday, following a four-day losing streak. The precious metal found some support at $3,900, but so far, it is lacking bullish momentum and remains unable to return above the $4,000 psychological level, which leaves the immediate bearish trend intact.
The precious metal trims losses with markets looking for direction, as traders ponder the scope of the Sino-US trade deal. The pair, however, suffered a significant setback on Thursday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments, putting a December rate cut into question, boosted US Treasury yields higher.
Technical Analysis: Gold's bearish correction might extend to $3,800
The technical picture shows price action looking for direction below $4,000., The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in 4-hour charts has picked up from lows but remains below the 50 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a frail upside momentum.
The broader bearish trend remains in play, with support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September 18 - October 17 bull run, at the 3,920 area, holding bears from now. Below here, the October 2 low, near $3,820, emerges as the next target. The measured target of an A-B=C-D retracement from all-time highs near $4,380 would be at $3,795.
Bulls, on the contrary, should break above Tuesday's and Wednesday's highs around $4,030 to gain confidence for a stronger recovery, and shift the focus to the October 23 highs, at $4.150, ahead of a previous support area near $4,220 (October 20 lows).
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
