Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls run into key resistance

Gold price bulls are in the market and eye the $2,000s.
The Federal Reserve´s preferred inflation measure could be a catalyst on Friday.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Gold price has been buoyed in part by a weaker US Dollar and expectations for a fall in interest rates. The US Dollar index was down 0.4% at 102.20, raising the appeal of dollar-denominated gold prices. XAU/USD has traveled between a low of $1,955 and $1,984.36 on Thursday.

Analysts at TD Securities argued that investor participation has remained muted despite little evidence of a boon from safe-haven demand in gold markets. ´´In reality, underwhelming CTA flows have weighed on the white metal's performance, despite substantial buying activity in China,´´ the analysts explained.

´´Today, prices are surging overnight amid several large-scale CTA buying programs, as a drift lower in key trigger levels has finally kicked off significant algorithmic buying activity that should help the metal outperform, ´´ the analysts added further.

Federal Reserve sentiment, key for Gold price

Meanwhile, with the Federal Reserve in mind, the February reading of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Friday, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will be released and could be a catalyst for the Gold price. January figures showed a sharp acceleration in consumer spending so the data will be closely eyed.

´´Comments from Fed officials have been mixed with Jerome Powell indicating last week that the impact of the recent turmoil in the banking system could be the equivalent of 25bp of tightening,´´ analysts at ANZ Bank said. ´´However other Federal Reserve officials have pointed out that more tightening will be required if inflation risks persist.´´

Meanwhile, US data on Thursday showed that Jobless Claims last week rose more than expected from the week before indicating a cooling labor market, while fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth was slightly lower at 2.6% compared with earlier estimates of 2.7%, both supporting the case for a softer Fed policy.

Gold price technical analysis

Gold price was testing the $1,980s resistance but the W-formation was a bearish pattern and this pulled on the Gold price. The gold price bulls have steppe din at neckline support and the price has rallied back into resistance. A pull back into the Fibonacci scale could be the next development before a move higher should the Gold price bulls stay committed with eyes on a restest in the $2,000s

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

AUD/USD falls to near 0.7100 after slipping below 50-day EMA

AUD/USD depreciates after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating sideways within a rectangle pattern, as neither bulls nor bears gain control. The AUD/USD pair is holding a slight bearish tone however as it sits beneath both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.

Japanese Yen edges up but remains close to the 160.00 intervention threshold

The Japanese Yen edges up against the US Dollar on Friday, but the USD/JPY pair remains above 159.90 at the time of writing, unable to put a significant distance from the 160.00 level, considered the limit of tolerable JPY weakness for Japanese authorities.

Gold returns to the red, awaits US NFP

Gold price is looking to test the weekly lows, while in the red near $4,450 in the early European session on Friday. The precious metal remains vulnerable amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and the US May employment report later on Friday.

Indian Rupee jumps as RBI holds, but unveils measures to boost foreign inflows

The Reserve Bank of India held the Repo Rate at 5.25%, as widely expected, on Friday. But the central bank unveiled various measures to boost foreign inflows into the economy, lifting the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar.

Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin eyes $60,000, Ethereum risks $1,750, XRP could test $1

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple prices edge lower on Friday, extending a steady decline of roughly 15% so far this week. Institutional outflows weigh on Bitcoin and Ethereum while XRP largely follows the broader market trend.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.