Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls run into key resistance

Gold price bulls are in the market and eye the $2,000s.
The Federal Reserve´s preferred inflation measure could be a catalyst on Friday.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Gold price has been buoyed in part by a weaker US Dollar and expectations for a fall in interest rates. The US Dollar index was down 0.4% at 102.20, raising the appeal of dollar-denominated gold prices. XAU/USD has traveled between a low of $1,955 and $1,984.36 on Thursday.

Analysts at TD Securities argued that investor participation has remained muted despite little evidence of a boon from safe-haven demand in gold markets. ´´In reality, underwhelming CTA flows have weighed on the white metal's performance, despite substantial buying activity in China,´´ the analysts explained.

´´Today, prices are surging overnight amid several large-scale CTA buying programs, as a drift lower in key trigger levels has finally kicked off significant algorithmic buying activity that should help the metal outperform, ´´ the analysts added further.

Federal Reserve sentiment, key for Gold price

Meanwhile, with the Federal Reserve in mind, the February reading of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Friday, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will be released and could be a catalyst for the Gold price. January figures showed a sharp acceleration in consumer spending so the data will be closely eyed.

´´Comments from Fed officials have been mixed with Jerome Powell indicating last week that the impact of the recent turmoil in the banking system could be the equivalent of 25bp of tightening,´´ analysts at ANZ Bank said. ´´However other Federal Reserve officials have pointed out that more tightening will be required if inflation risks persist.´´

Meanwhile, US data on Thursday showed that Jobless Claims last week rose more than expected from the week before indicating a cooling labor market, while fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth was slightly lower at 2.6% compared with earlier estimates of 2.7%, both supporting the case for a softer Fed policy.

Gold price technical analysis

Gold price was testing the $1,980s resistance but the W-formation was a bearish pattern and this pulled on the Gold price. The gold price bulls have steppe din at neckline support and the price has rallied back into resistance. A pull back into the Fibonacci scale could be the next development before a move higher should the Gold price bulls stay committed with eyes on a restest in the $2,000s

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

AUD/USD bulls seem hesitant below 0.7050 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD reverses an Asian session dip on Monday as renewed optimism over Iran diplomacy boosts investor confidence, keeping a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar and supporting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the one-month high, touched last Thursday, as bulls wait for the crucial RBA decision before taking fresh positions.

USD/JPY climbs to 158.00 neighborhood as BoJ uncertainty weighs on the JPY

The USD/JPY pair gains some positive traction at the start of a new week, recovering further from Friday's post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) swing low to sub-157.00 levels. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 158.00 neighborhood during the Asian session and seems unaffected by fresh intervention warning from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

Gold struggles to build on recovery from YTD low as Fed hike bets cap gains

Gold kicks off the new week on a positive note, snapping a two-day losing streak and reversing part of Friday's heavy losses to sub-$3,900 levels, or its lowest since October 2025. The optimism over a potential diplomatic breakthrough to end the US-Iran war caps the safe-haven US Dollar, and offers some support to the commodity. Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve rate hike bets remain firmly on the table amid oil-driven inflation concerns and might act as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple rebound as November begins after a losing October

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple recover slightly on Monday after closing October with four straight weeks of losses. BTC climbs above $78,462 after finding support around its key support zones, while ETH rebounds above $2,295 but remains below key Exponential Moving Averages, keeping its near-term outlook bearish.

Middle East War updates: Iran warns of expanded strikes against US despite progress in talks

Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.