Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears taking on deeper territory as greenback surges to fresh cycle highs

Gold is pressured below a key monthly trendline and continues to bleed out.
A sustained downtrend could form in gold should the large CTA selling program catalyze a breakdown in price, bank analysts argue.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

At $1,767, the price of gold is down on the day by some 2.2% after falling from a high of $1,812.19 to a low of $1,763.92 so far. The precious metal has been under water for the start of July due to a rebound in the US dollar and has collapsed to the lowest levels since early December while the greenback takes off to a fresh 20-year high.

Global equities have been under pressure due to recessionary fears that have dominated the markets this month so far. European exchanges weakened which has weighed on stocks on Wall Street supporting the bid in the greenback and offers in gold. However, bond yields have moderated which could be a lifeline for the gold bugs since gold offers no interest. The US 10-year note was last seen paying 2.82%, down 3.45% on the day so far.

''Gold is being weighed down by substantial CTA trend followers, analysts at TD Securities explained. ''The margin of safety is razor-thin,'' the analysts added.

''A sustained downtrend could form in gold should the large CTA selling program catalyzes a breakdown in prices. After all, as central banks face a credibility crisis, they could remain committed to their battle against inflation and keep rates elevated for longer than recession odds would otherwise imply,'' the analysts argue.

''The massive amount of speculative length from proprietary traders in the yellow metal also appears complacent, given that this length was accumulated as early as 2020. The bias remains to the downside in gold.''

Gold technical analysis

The price of the precious metal is trading below the rising supporting trendline on the monthly time frame but the critical fractal lows are located at $1,676.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD stays weak below 1.3250 on UK politics, PMIs eyed

GBP/USD loses ground below 1.3250 in the European session on Tuesday. Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom continues to weigh on the British Pound, while the US Dollar capitalizes on the risk-off mood and hawkish Fed bets. The UK and US S&P Global preliminary PMI data are next of note for the major.

EUR/USD keeps range above 1.1400 ahead of German/ Eurozone PMIs

EUR/USD remains stuck in a tight range above 1.1400 in Tuesday's European trading. The US Dollar holds the upper hand against the Euro amid risk-off sentiment and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, leaving the pair on the defensive. Traders now await the preliminary readings of the Purchasing Managers Index from Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States later on Tuesday.

Gold drops to nearly two-week low, seems vulnerable amid Fed hike bets, bullish USD

Gold adds to its Asian session losses, and drops to a nearly two-week low, around the $4,115 region in the last hour amid a bullish US Dollar. Despite positive signals from US-Iran peace talks, widespread skepticism remains toward a final deal. This helps the USD in preserving its recent strong gains to the highest level since May 2025.

Bears cap Solana below $75 as ETF, retail demand wanes

Solana edges below $72 risking a third consecutive day of losses that could erase the 5% gains from Friday. SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds reflect muted demand from institutional investors following a minor recovery last week. Meanwhile, retail trading activity hints at a bearish positional buildup.

Big day of PMIs ahead

In the euro area, June flash PMIs are released. Most respondents will likely have answered after the US-Iran deal, yet the impact of lower oil prices is unlikely to already show up in activity data. We expect manufacturing to edge down to 50.9 (May: 51.6), while we expect services to see a modest improvement to 48.8 (May: 47.7).

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.