Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears taking on deeper territory as greenback surges to fresh cycle highs

Gold is pressured below a key monthly trendline and continues to bleed out.
A sustained downtrend could form in gold should the large CTA selling program catalyze a breakdown in price, bank analysts argue.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

At $1,767, the price of gold is down on the day by some 2.2% after falling from a high of $1,812.19 to a low of $1,763.92 so far. The precious metal has been under water for the start of July due to a rebound in the US dollar and has collapsed to the lowest levels since early December while the greenback takes off to a fresh 20-year high.

Global equities have been under pressure due to recessionary fears that have dominated the markets this month so far. European exchanges weakened which has weighed on stocks on Wall Street supporting the bid in the greenback and offers in gold. However, bond yields have moderated which could be a lifeline for the gold bugs since gold offers no interest. The US 10-year note was last seen paying 2.82%, down 3.45% on the day so far.

''Gold is being weighed down by substantial CTA trend followers, analysts at TD Securities explained. ''The margin of safety is razor-thin,'' the analysts added.

''A sustained downtrend could form in gold should the large CTA selling program catalyzes a breakdown in prices. After all, as central banks face a credibility crisis, they could remain committed to their battle against inflation and keep rates elevated for longer than recession odds would otherwise imply,'' the analysts argue.

''The massive amount of speculative length from proprietary traders in the yellow metal also appears complacent, given that this length was accumulated as early as 2020. The bias remains to the downside in gold.''

Gold technical analysis

The price of the precious metal is trading below the rising supporting trendline on the monthly time frame but the critical fractal lows are located at $1,676.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

AUD/USD bulls seem hesitant below 0.7050 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD reverses an Asian session dip on Monday as renewed optimism over Iran diplomacy boosts investor confidence, keeping a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar and supporting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the one-month high, touched last Thursday, as bulls wait for the crucial RBA decision before taking fresh positions.

USD/JPY climbs to 158.00 neighborhood as BoJ uncertainty weighs on the JPY

The USD/JPY pair gains some positive traction at the start of a new week, recovering further from Friday's post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) swing low to sub-157.00 levels. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 158.00 neighborhood during the Asian session and seems unaffected by fresh intervention warning from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

Gold finds relief from Oil’s decline as traders await key US economic data

Gold retains a positive bias during American trading hours on Monday after sliding to a fresh yearly low of $3,870 on Friday and ending October down 6.87%. A pullback in Oil prices amid diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran supports the precious metal. However, the rebound lacks conviction as the fundamental backdrop continues to raise doubts over a sustained recovery.

Dogecoin risks deeper slide as whales diverge

Dogecoin hovers around $0.075 on Monday after falling for the fifth consecutive week since the end of September. Santiment data shows diverging whale activity, as large holders reduce their positions while smaller whale wallets accumulate tokens. Meanwhile, weakening on-chain metrics and a deteriorating technical outlook suggest that DOGE could remain vulnerable to further losses.

Why strong US growth could not stop the bond rally and AI selloff

The US economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate, yet Treasury yields fell and the Nasdaq ended October with its worst monthly performance since March 2025. The market is no longer rewarding capital expenditure simply because it supports growth. Investors are testing whether that expenditure can produce cash flow and returns above the cost of capital.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.