Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears seek re-entry near $1,990 as Easter Monday triggers USD rebound
- Gold price pares the first weekly gains in three, bounces off 200-EMA at the latest.
- China-inflicted risk aversion, hawkish Fed bets underpin US Dollar’s corrective bounce after four-week downtrend.
- XAU/USD bears remain cautious ahead of key support.
- Easter Monday holidays, anxiety ahead of US inflation, Fed Minutes add filters to Gold price.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trims intraday losses around $1,995 amid the Easter Monday holiday in major bourses. In doing so, the bullion bounces off the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains mildly offered on a day, which in turn teases sellers after the bullion marked the first weekly gains in three at the last.
That said, the China-linked risk-off mood joins the US Dollar’s rebound to exert downside pressure on the Gold price. However, the market’s latest inaction limits the XAU/USD moves of late. Recently, South Korea joined the US in defending Taiwan as Beijing marks a heavy show of military drills. Even so, the terms of tension are still inexplicable as the US signals the latest moves of sending arms help to Taipei as precautionary and resists taking major steps.
Elsewhere, Friday’s better-than-forecast prints of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) renew hawkish Fed bets and suggest a 0.25% rate hike by the US central bank versus previously expected inaction.
It should be noted, however, that the downbeat US Treasury bond yields and the overall weak US statistics prod the US Dollar bulls and allow the Gold buyers to remain hopeful ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses around 4,130, after a two-day uptrend, whereas the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields remain pressured near 3.37% and 3.95% respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day’s losses and portray the market’s rush toward the risk-safety amid economic slowdown fears. Further, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints mild gains around 102.20 while extending the last Tuesday’s rebound from a two-month low.
Moving on, Gold traders should pay attention to the geopolitical headlines for intraday directions while US inflation and Fed Minutes will be crucial for a clear guide afterward.
Gold price technical analysis
Gold price remains depressed as XAU/USD breaks the one-week-old ascending support line, now resistance, as well as the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) surrounding $2,007, to lure Gold sellers.
Even so, the 200-EMA and previous resistance line from March 20, respectively near $1,990 and $1,982, can challenge the Gold price downside ahead of welcoming the bears.
In that case, an ascending support line from March 22, close to $1958, will be on the XAU/USD seller’s radar.
Meanwhile, recovery moves remain elusive unless crossing the 50-EMA hurdle of $2,007. Following that, the recent high near $2,035 and previous support line from April 03, now resistance around $2,040, can test the Gold buyers.
Should the precious metal remains firmer past $2,040, the previous yearly top surrounding $2,070 and the all-time high marked in 2020 around $2,075 will be in focus.
Gold price: Hourly chart
Trend: Further downside expected
Author
Anil Panchal
FXStreet
Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.
