Forex Today: US NFP data and Middle East crisis to keep volatility high
Here is what you need to know on Friday, March 6:
Market participants gear up for the release of the US February employment report on Friday, which will feature Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and wage inflation figures, while navigating through the headlines surrounding the Middle East crisis.
Following the Senate vote on Wednesday, the US House has rejected a measure to limit US President Donald Trump's ability to take further military action against Iran on Thursday. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that Iranian officials reached out in an attempt to come to an agreement to end the war, but he insisted that it was too late. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told “NBC Nightly News” anchor Tom Llamas that Iran has not asked for a ceasefire and added that they have rejected negotiations with the US.
Crude oil prices rise for the fifth consecutive day on Friday and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was last seen trading above $80.50, gaining more than 2% on the day. On a weekly basis, the WTI is up nearly 20%. US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said that the President Trump's administration is weighing a range of options for addressing the spike in oil and gasoline prices amid the war in Iran, Bloomberg reported earlier in the day.
The US Dollar (USD) Index closed in positive territory on Thursday as safe-haven flows continued to dominate the action in financial markets. Early Friday, the USD Index holds steady at around 99.00, while US stock index futures trade marginally higher on the day. In February, NFP is forecast to rise 59K following the impressive 130K increase recorded in January. In this period, the Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.31% | 0.38% | 1.01% | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.67% | 1.61% | |
| EUR | -1.31% | -0.93% | -0.33% | -1.24% | -1.18% | -0.63% | 0.29% | |
| GBP | -0.38% | 0.93% | 0.42% | -0.32% | -0.26% | 0.29% | 1.22% | |
| JPY | -1.01% | 0.33% | -0.42% | -0.89% | -0.83% | -0.23% | 0.63% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | 1.24% | 0.32% | 0.89% | 0.03% | 0.67% | 1.55% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | 1.18% | 0.26% | 0.83% | -0.03% | 0.55% | 1.49% | |
| NZD | -0.67% | 0.63% | -0.29% | 0.23% | -0.67% | -0.55% | 0.94% | |
| CHF | -1.61% | -0.29% | -1.22% | -0.63% | -1.55% | -1.49% | -0.94% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
After posting marginal gains on Wednesday, Gold (XAU/USD) turned south on Thursday and lost more than 1% on a daily basis. XAU/USD rebounds early Friday and trades above $5,100.
EUR/USD stabilizes slightly above 1.1600 in the European morning on Friday after posting small losses on Thursday. Eurostat will publish revisions to the fourth-quarter Employment Change and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the Eurozone.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the government is ready to take steps in timely fashion to combat the economic impact from Iran conflict, adding that Japan has not fully exited from deflation. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Himino reiterated that the central bank plans to gradually adjust the degree of monetary accommodation. USD/JPY stays in a consolidation phase above 157.50 after closing in the green on Thursday.
GBP/USD recovers modestly and trades above 1.3350 but remains in the lower half of its weekly range on Friday.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
