Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears in the market below trendline support


  • Gold price is making the case for the downside.
  • Banking sector jitters ease as authorities come to the rescue. 
  • The break of the Gold price trendline support is compelling and points to a downside continuation to test key structure of $1,912 to open risk to $1,900. 

Gold Price was two-way over the European Central bank interest rate decision but then gave in to the bears that took control and moved towards a key structure area on the hourly chart, $1,912.49 where the lows reached $1,913. The initial reaction to the 50 basis point Refinancing Rate hike was a drop to test $1,926 before returning to $1,930 from where the bears piled in again to take out the bullish trendline support as illustrated below. 

Meanwhile, the ECB hiked as follows:

ECB rate hike 

  • Main refi rate at 3.50% vs 3.00% prior.
  • Raises interest rate on marginal lending facility to 3.75% vs 3.25% prior.
  • Deposit facility to 3.00% vs 2.50% prior.

ECB statement key notes

  • Refrains from signalling future rate moves in statement.
  • Inflation projected to remain too high for too long.
  • Headline inflation expected to average 5.3% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.
  • Forecasts done before market turmoil.
  • Elevated level of uncertainty reinforces importance of a data-dependent approach to ECB policy decision, which will be determined by its assessment of inflation outlook in light of incoming data and dynamics.
  • Banking sector sector is resilient, with strong capital and liquidity positions
  • Policy toolkit is fully equipped to provide liquidity support to eurozone financial system if needed.

As a result, markets have now priced the terminal rate at 3% and the Euro was put under pressure. 

Banking crisis fears dwindle

Meanwhile, Gold price came under pressure in the main on the back of a pause in safe-haven buying as concerns over the health of Credit Suisse diminished after the institution secured funding from the Swiss National Bank to firm up its liquidity.

Analysts at ANZ Bank explained that ´´mainstream reports in the US that major US banks, working with the government, are in discussions to support California based First Republic Bank, also buoyed sentiment. US regional bank stocks climbed 5.0% and December 2023 fed funds futures sold off more than 40bp.¨´

´´The announcement of a bank funding plan sparked a sell-off in gold prices overnight, with CTA trend followers readjusting their length in response, but we continue to expect prices to remain resilient,´´ ´the analysts at TD Securities explained. 

´´Meanwhile, risks that the tightening cycle is coming to an end should also realign discretionary flows with strong physical flows, which could translate into substantial upside,´´ the analysts argued.

Gold price technical analysis

The break of the trendline support is compelling and points to a downside continuation to test key structure of $1,912 to open risk to $1,900. 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD struggles to recover above 1.0900 as markets remain cautious

EUR/USD struggles to recover above 1.0900 as markets remain cautious

EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.0900 following Thursday's sharp decline. Dovish comments from European Central Bank officials and the risk-averse market atmosphere make it difficult for the pair to stage a rebound on Friday.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD falls toward 1.2900, looks to post weekly losses

GBP/USD falls toward 1.2900, looks to post weekly losses

GBP/USD continues to push lower toward 1.2900 in the American session on Friday. Disappointing Retail Sales data from the UK, combined with the US Dollar (USD) recovery amid souring mood, causes the pair to stay under bearish pressure ahead of the weekend.

GBP/USD News

Gold extends daily slide, trades near $2,400

Gold extends daily slide, trades near $2,400

Gold's correction from the record-high set earlier in the week deepens on Friday. With the US Dollar (USD) benefiting from safe-haven flows and the 10-year US yield holding steady above 4.2%, XAU/USD tests $2,400 and looks to post small weekly losses

Gold News

Top 10 crypto market movers as Bitcoin and Ethereum hold steady ahead of $1.8 billion options expiry

Top 10 crypto market movers as Bitcoin and Ethereum hold steady ahead of $1.8 billion options expiry

Bitcoin and Ethereum hold steady above $64,000 and $3,400 as $1.8 billion in options expire on Friday. WazirX hack of $230 million potentially linked to Lazarus Group ushers correction in Shiba Inu, among other assets. 

Read more

Week ahead – Flash PMIs, US GDP and BoC decision on tap

Week ahead – Flash PMIs, US GDP and BoC decision on tap

US data awaited amid overly dovish Fed rate cut bets. July PMIs to reveal how economies entered H2. BoC decides on monetary policy, may cut rates again.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures