Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD attracts some sellers to below $3,350 amid tariff uncertainty
- Gold price edges lower to near $3,320 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Strong US June employment data weighs on the Gold as Fed rate cut odds decline.
- Middle East geopolitical risks and renewed trade tensions might cap the downside for the Gold price.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to around $3,320 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges lower as the US June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report altered the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations. Traders brace for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes later on Wednesday for fresh impetus.
The US NFP came in stronger than expected, rising by 147,000 jobs in June from 144,000 in May (revised from 139,000). Additionally, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1% in June. These reports indicated continued labor market resilience, reducing the possibility of the Fed’s near-term monetary accommodation. This, in turn, underpins the US Dollar (USD) and exerts some selling pressure on the non-yielding assets like Gold.
On the other hand, the potential downside of yellow metal might be limited amid the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Israel stated late Sunday that the country’s military had attacked Houthi targets at three ports and a power plant in Yemen. Defence Minister Israel Katz confirmed the attack, saying they were carried out due to repeated attacks by the Iranian-backed rebel group on Israel. Any sign of escalation could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the gold price.
Gold traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding tariff policies. CBBC reported on Sunday that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that US President Donald Trump will send letters to some trading partners saying tariffs will return to April 2 levels on August 1 if there is no progress on the trade agreement. Renewed trade tensions might lift the Gold price in the near term.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
