Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD appreciates beyond $4,200 amid higher Fed cut bets
- Gold hits fresh record highs above $4,200 amid broad-based US Dollar weakness.
- Fed's Powell reiterated his concern about employment, paving the path for further interest rate cuts.
- XAU/USD's rally looks overextended, but there is no sign of reversal as of yet.
Gold is trading higher for the fifth consecutive day on Wednesday, attempting to confirm the breach of the $4,200. The precious metal is trading at $4,193 at the time of writing, after having hit a fresh all-time high at $4,218 earlier on the day.
Bullion is drawing support from a softer US Dollar on Wednesday, following dovish comments by the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a speech in Philadelphia. Powell reiterated that the labour market deterioration is more concerning than inflation right now, which practically confirms a rate cut in October and raises expectations of another one in December.
Technical Analysis: No signs of a trend shift in sight
The technical picture shows Gold skyrocketing. The pair has rallied an eye-watering 27% in less than two months, which normally leads to a correction. The 4-hour RSI is way within overbought territory. So far, however, downside attempts remain limited.
Above the $4,200 level, the 172.2% Fibonacci extension of the October 1.14 rally is at $4,235, and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the same cycle is at $4,300; these are the following potential targets.
Downside attempts remain contained at the previous all-time high near $4170 (Tuesday's high). Further down, Tuesday’s low at $4,090 and the October 8, 9 highs at $4.050 area would come into focus.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
