Gold price eases from record high amid positive risk tone; bullish bias remains

Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats after touching a fresh record high earlier this Monday and trades with a mild negative bias around the $3,220 area during the first half of the European session. A positive tone around the equity markets prompts some profit-taking around the precious metal amid slightly overbought conditions on the daily chart. Any meaningful corrective decline, however, still seems elusive in the wake of a sharp escalation in US-China trade tensions, which might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion.

Meanwhile, investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon and lower borrowing costs at least three times this year amid worries about a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) depressed near its lowest level since April 2022 and should contribute to limiting the downside for the non-yielding Gold price. Hence, any subsequent slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited, warranting caution for bearish traders.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls turn cautious as improving risk sentiment undermines safe-haven demand

• China increased its tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation for US President Donald Trump's decision to raise duties on Chinese goods to a combined 145%. This, in turn, adds to market concerns that the escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies would weaken global economic growth and lift the safe-haven Gold price to a fresh all-time peak.
• Meanwhile, the recent unusual spike in US Treasury yields suggests that investors are dumping US government bonds amid the weakening confidence in the US economy. Adding to this, the prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstered by the US consumer inflation data released last week, keep the US Dollar depressed and further benefit the commodity.
• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Thursday that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% in March and the yearly rate decelerated sharply to 2.4% from 2.8% in February. Moreover, the core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose just 0.1% from the month before and came in at 2.8% for the 12 months ended in March, marking its lowest rate in nearly four years.
• Traders are now pricing in 90 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end 2025, which might further contribute to driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal. Moreover, investors expect tariffs to push inflation higher in the coming months. This could further underpin the XAU/USD's status as a hedge against rising prices and support prospects for a further near-term appreciation.
• Market participants this week will closely scrutinize comments from influential FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, for cues about the future rate-cut path. Apart from this, the US monthly Retail Sales figures, also due on Wednesday, will drive the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the precious metal during the latter half of the week.

Gold price near-term bias seems tilted firmly in favor of bulls; the $3,168-3,167 support holds the key

From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding just above the 70 mark and points to slightly overstretched conditions. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before traders start positioning for a fresh leg up. Meanwhile, any corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity near the $3,200 round figure, which, in turn, should help limit the downside for the Gold price near the $3,168-3,167 region. The latter should act as a strong base and a key pivotal point for short-term traders.