Gold eyes $1250 as USD weakness fuels recovery

  • Inflation in the U.S. disappoints as it rises 0.1% in June (MoM).
  • US Dollar Index erases daily gains after CPI figures.
  • Wall Street's solid performance caps the gains.

The XAU/USD pair spent the first half of the day fluctuating in a relatively tight range amid a lack of fresh catalysts. At the beginning of the NA session, however, the pair gained traction following the macroeconomic data releases from the United States and touched a new session high at $1247.65. As of writing, the pair was up $5 on the day at $1246.15.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday announced that inflation in June rose 0.1% to fall short of the experts' expectation of 0.2%. Further details of the report showed that the core-CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, grew 0.2% and 2.3% on a monthly and yearly basis respectively with both readings coming in line with the market consensus. Nonetheless, after recording sharp gains on the back of upbeat PPI data yesterday, the US Dollar Index failed to extend its upside and turned flat near 94.50.

Although the XAU/USD pair took advantage of the greenback weakness, a higher risk-appetite as reflected by the gains witnessed in major equity indexes in the United States make it difficult for the pair to continue to push higher in the session.

While testifying before the Congress on Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that they were focused on retaliatory trade measures from other countries and resolving them helping the market sentiment improve. At the moment, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.75% while the S&P 500 is adding 0.65%.

Technical levels to consider

The pair could encounter the first resistance at $1256 (Jul. 11 high/20-DMA) ahead of $1265 (Jul. 9 high) and $1278 (50-DMA). On the downside, supports align at $1241/39 (daily low/Jul. 2 low), $1228 (Jul. 16, 2017, low) and $1218 (Jul. 3, 2017, low).

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