• Gold now depends on what the market intends to do with the dollar post gradual Fed.
  • Gold catching a bid from key downside levels and YTD lows. 

Gold has bounced on the day so far, catching a bid from the 200-D SMA while the dollar heat has been turned down a touch and US yields pull back further from the 3.00% psychological level.

In an environment where gold has struggled in Q1 with global demand for gold down to the lowest in a decade, bulls are robust above the 200-D SMA at $1,304.54/oz and the recent lows of $1,301.68/oz have so far held. Gold was steady on the economic releases in the US today and then firmed despite the beats in the ISM non-manufacturing PMI and trade balance.

June gold climbed by $10, or 0.8%, to $1,315.60/oz while spot made a high of $1,318.06. The sentiment is that the Fed is in no hurry to jack up rates and will even allow inflation to move above target considering how long it has been running below it and just three hikes this year instead of four dented the dollar and in turn supports the precious metal. The US benchmark has also been a stronger signal of late, currently trading between 2.93%-2.98% today where there has been a higher correlation to the dollar's performance (and gold).  Eyes will now turn to the nonfarm payrolls on Friday. 

All eyes turn to nonfarm payrolls Friday

We had a glimpse of what might be in store of the ADP employment report is to be considered as any kind of a prelude. The report showed a private sector employment increase of 204k in April. The previous two months were revised lower modestly. "This report appears consistent with the continued underlying strength in the labour market and an economy that continues to grow above trend. In particular, the data do not suggest any material weakening of momentum despite modest declines in manufacturing survey indices in April," analysts at Nomura explained.

Gold levels

Gold bulls could find themselves in a bull trap here if the dollar turns bid and Gold drops below the 200-D SMA and YTD lows. To the downside, 1300 is a psychological barrier and below there, 1295 is a previous double top area. Breaking down these doors would be highly bearish. However, RSI was diverging from the recent downtrend and has turned higher away from oversold territory. The bid on the 4hr sticks has run its course and RSI turns south as the price meets supply at the descending 50-4hr SMA at 1317. 

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