Gold: A test of $3000 likely on the cards – RBC CM

In their latest report, commodity strategists at RBC Capital Markets set out a fresh target for gold at $3000 after it surpassed the $2000 level earlier this week.

Key quotes (via Kitco News)

Gold has settled at its highest levels ever, and the message is clear: gold positioning indicates that investors’ attitudes toward the metal have changed amid the public health crisis, economic turbulence, and extremely easy monetary policy actions,”

“With gold prices rocketing to all-time highs, gold’s outright price gains have made it a star asset in 2020,”

“On the back of this, we have moved our previous middle/base case to our low scenario, moved our previous high scenario to the middle/base, and launched a new high scenario where gold crosses the $3,000/oz level assuming the current situation deteriorates materially.”

“Factors that would trigger another wave of large gains could coincide with further unprecedented monetary stimulus, possible asset bubbles, and perhaps difficult to control inflation. This is where we would put ‘expect the unexpected’ and tail risks coming true.”

“Steps to get there and early warning signs to watch out for would include ever more aggressive fiscal and monetary policy moves, another and more exaggerated spike in infection rates, and an unexpected geopolitical event sparking a new widespread economic concern.”

“Love it or hate it, gold seems like a freight train as investors have gone [perceived safe] haven hunting. Gold prices have been on a winning streak not seen in years, if ever, having set discrete nominal records in essentially all of the currencies that are relevant to gold (RMB, INR, AUD, CAD, EUR) and now even USD.”

“In an environment driven by economic uncertainty, low and negative rates, etc., gold is shining for a reason and should continue to do so for the foreseeable future, in our view.”