According to the latest Reuters polls of economists, the next global downturn will be triggered by a further escalation in the US-China trade war and tightening financial conditions.
Key Findings:
“Reuters polls of more than 500 economists taken this month showed a downgrade to the outlook for 18 of 44 economies polled, with 23 unchanged. Only three were marginally upgraded.
While risks from trade protectionism have been consistently highlighted by Reuters polls since January last year, the latest indicated that growth in about 70 percent of 44 economies surveyed has already peaked.
The latest shift in growth expectations comes on the heels of a deep sell-off in financial markets, especially emerging ones, largely driven by trade concerns.
A majority out of nearly 150 economists said the top two triggers for the next global downturn were a further escalation of U.S.-Sino trade tensions, and tightening in financial conditions driven by a deep sell-off in global equities or a rapid rise in government bond yields.
Only a slim majority expect U.S. wage growth to pick up meaningfully before the next recession.”
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