In a report published on Tuesday, the German government said that it now expects the economy to stagnate in 2025, compared to the 0.3% growth projection in the previous estimate.
The German economy is forecast to grow by 1% in 2026, while inflation is projects to be 2% in 2025 and 1.9% next year.
"The German economy is once again facing major challenges due to the unpredictable trade policy of the United States," Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in a written statement. "Given the German economy's close integration into global supply chains and our high level of foreign trade openness, the new US protectionism could have significant direct and indirect effects on our economic growth," he added.
Market reaction
EUR/USD holds its ground following this headline. At the time of press, the pair was trading near 1.1390, rising 0.65% on a daily basis.
German economy FAQs
The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets.
Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members.
Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity.
German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices.
The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds gains above 1.1300 on persistent USD weakness
EUR/USD trades in positive territory above 1.1300 on Wednesday, supported by a sustained weakness in the US Dollar. Renewed trade jitters, along with fresh concerns about the US fiscal health, add further pressure on the Greenback. Markets await comments from central bankers.
GBP/USD defends gains below 1.3450 after strong UK inflation data
GBP/USD is off the highs but defends gains below 1.3450 in the European session on Wednesday. The data from the UK showed that the annual CPI inflation jumped to 3.5% in April from 2.6% in March, temporarily lifting the Pound Sterling. But a softer risk tone caps the pair's upside.
Gold edges higher reclaiming $3,300 on rising geopolitical tensions and US fiscal woes
Gold breaks higher on Wednesday towards $3,308 at the time of writing, fueled by concerns that tensions in the Middle East might spiral out of control again and US fiscal woes. In late trading on Tuesday, CNN reported that Israel is considering targeting nuclear sites in Iran.
Dogecoin and Shiba Inu Price Forecast: DOGE and SHIB show early signs of a bullish breakout
Dogecoin and Shiba Inu show early signs of a potential rally as both meme coins stabilize at key support levels. On-chain metrics for dog-themed meme coins show positive funding rates and dormant activity, reinforcing bullish sentiment. The technical outlook also supports the case for double-digit gains.
FOMO vs fundamentals: Retail buys the dip, institutional investors stay cautious
Retail optimism is rising, but institutions are still treading carefully amid lingering macro and earnings risks. Policy and fiscal uncertainty remain elevated, with trade tensions, U.S. debt concerns, and a cautious Fed dominating the backdrop.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.