GBP/USD tumbles from 20-week high as markets reverse flows back into the US Dollar, aimed for 1.2700

GBP/USD spread in both directions on Thursday, climbing to a multi-month high before pulling back.
US Dollar flows are dominating the FX market to wrap up 2023.
US data misses initially sparked a risk rally, but rising Treasury yields ended it just as quickly.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The GBP/USD rose in early Thursday’s trading window, climbing to a 20-week high before slumping back and seeing a downside extension sparked by an unexpected climb in US Treasury yields during a 7-year T-note auction.

The US Dollar (USD) is now flat on the week against the Pound Sterling (GBP), declining nearly 0.9% from Thursday’s high as the GBP/USD heads back towards the 1.2700 handle.

Treasury yields cut risk rally short

The last trading week of 2023 has been largely marked by a long-winded risk rally that has seen the US Dollar decline across the board as money markets tilt fully into risk-on territory as investors lean into bets of an accelerated pace of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024, but a policy pivot from the US central bank is still well off into the future, and risk bids were caught by surprise by an unexpected uptick in US Treasury yields during a 7-year note auction.

US 7-year Treasury yields rose from 3.837% to 3.859% on Thursday in a $40 billion bond auction, sparking a reversal of the week’s risk appetite flows. Risk bids were extended by misses in US economic data early Thursday, with US Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales both missing the mark.

US weekly Initial Jobless Claims rise to 218K vs. 210K expected

Deflating US economic indicators helped to step up market expectations of Fed rate cuts coming sooner rather than later, but jitters in bond yields quickly ended the late week’s “bad news is good news” narrative as investors retreated into the safe haven US Dollar in the second-last trading day of the year.

US Pending Home Sales unchanged in November

The last trading week of 2023 will wrap up on Friday with low-impact UK Nationwide Housing Prices, to be followed by the US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). UK Housing Prices are expected to hold flat at 0.0% in December compared to November’s 0.2% increase, while the Chicago PMI is forecast to slip from November’s 55.8 to 51.0 in December.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

Thursday’s decline in the GBP/USD drags the pair down from multi-month highs near 1.2830 back towards the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the 1.2700 handle, just above a familiar near-term support zone from 1.2700 to 1.2690.

Daily candlesticks have the GBP/USD at risk of tumbling back into familiar price level as intraday bids dip back into a familiar technical zone near the 1.2700 handle, and the medium-term price floor is sitting at the 200-day SMA above the 1.2500 major handle.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Technical Levels

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.2718
Today Daily Change	-0.0082
Today Daily Change %	-0.64
Today daily open	1.28

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2653
Daily SMA50	1.2467
Daily SMA100	1.2448
Daily SMA200	1.2524

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2803
Previous Daily Low	1.2699
Previous Weekly High	1.2762
Previous Weekly Low	1.2612
Previous Monthly High	1.2733
Previous Monthly Low	1.2096
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2763
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2738
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2731
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2663
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2627
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2835
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2871
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.294

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

GBP/USD holds range below mid-1.3600s amid Fed risks and Iran tensions

The GBP/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the second straight day, and trades around the 1.3630 area during the Asian session. The US Dollar is looking to build on its modest recovery from the lowest level since May 14, and is acting as a headwind for the currency pair. The lack of follow-through selling warrants some caution for bearish traders.

EUR/USD gains support amid hawkish ECB expectations, subdued US Dollar

EUR/USD inches higher after posting minor losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1670 during the Asian hours. The pair finds support as rising oil prices, elevated bond yields, and escalating Middle East tensions drive Eurozone inflation concerns. These factors have boosted expectations for a more hawkish stance from the European Central Bank, which is widely anticipated to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike in September.

$4700 tested as Gold pulls back but bullish potential remains intact

Gold has pulled back sharply from fresh 15-week highs of $4,697, snapping a two-day uptrend in Asia on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) holds onto recovery gains, capping further upside in the bullion.

Bitcoin tops $80,000 as US Treasury fights high yields – AERO, VIRTUAL rally

Bitcoin extends gains above $80,000 as broader market risk-on sentiment persists. The scarce asset could extend its rally as the US Treasury combats high yields in the long-dated bond market, with further interventions on the horizon. Aerodrome Finance (AERO) and Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) emerged as top performers over the last 24 hours.

The forex market is switching to a ‘debasement trade’

The US dollar has stabilised near three-month lows thanks to a rapid recovery in Treasury bond yields. Yields on 30-year bonds are returning to the levels seen following the Treasury’s announcement that it was increasing the minimum purchase volume to $4 billion. The greenback got support from falling stock indices, the continued rally in Brent crude, and positive signals from the US economy.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.