|

GBP/USD trades with positive bias around 1.3075 area, lacks follow-through ahead of US CPI

  • GBP/USD edges higher amid subdued USD price action, though the upside seems limited.
  • Expectations for more aggressive BoE policy easing undermine the GBP amid a bullish USD.
  • Bulls also seem reluctant ahead of Thursday’s release of the US consumer inflation figures.

The GBP/USD pair trades with a mild positive bias around the 1.3075 area during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit it lacks bullish conviction and remains within the striking distance of a nearly one-month low touched the previous day. 

The US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recent strong gains to the highest level since August 16 and continues to draw support from rising bets for a regular 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. The expectations were reaffirmed by the FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday, which showed a consensus that the outsized rate cut would not lock the central bank into any specific pace for future cuts. This keeps the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond elevated above the 4% threshold, or its highest level since July 31, which continues to underpin the buck and acts as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. 

Meanwhile, last week's dovish remarks by the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that the central bank might be heading towards speeding up its rate-cutting cycle. This, in turn, might contribute to the British Pound's (GBP) relative underperformance and cap any meaningful upside for the GBP/USD pair. Traders might also prefer to wait for the release of the US consumer inflation figures, which along with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday, might influence expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path. This, in turn, will drive the USD demand in the near term and provide some meaningful impetus to the currency pair. 

Heading into the key data risks, traders on Thursday might take cues from the BoE Credit Conditions Survey to grab short-term opportunities. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside, suggesting that any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity. Spot prices seem poised to extend the recent sharp pullback from the 1.3435 area, or the highest level since March 2022 touched last month.

US Dollar PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

 USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD -0.04%-0.05%-0.06%-0.03%-0.17%-0.44%-0.00%
EUR0.04% 0.00%-0.02%-0.01%-0.10%-0.36%0.04%
GBP0.05%-0.00% -0.02%0.00%-0.18%-0.37%-0.01%
JPY0.06%0.02%0.02% 0.02%-0.23%-0.49%-0.06%
CAD0.03%0.00%-0.01%-0.02% -0.15%-0.36%-0.01%
AUD0.17%0.10%0.18%0.23%0.15% -0.26%0.17%
NZD0.44%0.36%0.37%0.49%0.36%0.26% 0.36%
CHF0.00%-0.04%0.00%0.06%0.00%-0.17%-0.36% 

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD hits multi-week tops around 1.3560

GBP/USD gathers fresh steam and advances to new three-month peaks near the 1.3560 zone on Friday. Cable’s sharp move higher comes after three daily drops in a row and follows the increasing selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD pops to fresh two-month highs, targets 1.1600

EUR/USD advances markedly, revisiting the upper 1.1500s for the first time since mid-June. The pair’s sharp uptick comes on the back of a strong retracement in the US Dollar amid BoJ intervention chatter and despite steady uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold picks up pace, approaches $4,400

Gold rebounds toward the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday, reversing the previous day’s pullback. The precious metal’s recovery comes as fresh and intense weakness keep weighing on the US Dollar, while traders keep assessing easing expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike and the situation from the Middle East.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI extends consolidation as bulls eye $0.10
Pi Network (PI) price holds steady on Friday, maintaining a consolidating tone for three consecutive days. Mild retail strength in the PI token remains stable, with Open Interest above $9 million, while social buzz eases. PI token’s technical outlook is mixed, as bearish momentum wanes to neutral, with bulls eyeing the $0.1000 psychological level.
 Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns

Actual inflation data for July came out as expected with a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and 0.2% excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation remains too high at 3.4% and means that wage earners are experiencing stagnating spending power at best, and core inflation is a bit higher than the inflation target of two percent would suggest.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?
Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.