GBP/USD struggles for a firm intraday direction, flat-lines above mid-1.2400s

GBP/USD seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session.
A combination of factors acts as a headwind for the USD and lends support to the major.
The uncertainty over the BoE’s rate-hike path holds back bulls from placing fresh bets.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buying near the 1.2435 region on Thursday and for now, seems to have stalled this week's modest pullback from its highest level since June 2022. Spot prices climb nearly 50 pips from the daily low, albeit lacks follow-through and trade in neutral territory, around the 1.2465 zone during the early part of the European session.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from over a two-month low and attracts fresh sellers on Wednesday, which, in turn, is seen lending some support to the GBP/USD pair. Rising bets for an imminent pause in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hiking cycle turn out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the Greenback. In fact, the current market pricing indicates an even chance of a 25 bps lift-off at the next FOMC meeting in May and the possibility of rate cuts by year-end.

The bets were reaffirmed by the disappointing release of the US ADP report on Wednesday, which showed that private-sector employers added 145K jobs in March as compared to 200K anticipated and the previous month's upwardly revised reading of 261K. Adding to this, the ISM Services PMI indicated a slowdown in growth during March, along with a deceleration in its Employment sub-index. The data suggested that the Fed's efforts to cool the labor market could be having some impact.

Meanwhile, expectations that the Fed is nearly done with its inflation-fighting interest rate hikes keep the US Treasury bond yields depressed near their lowest level in seven months. This, along with a stable performance around the equity markets, undermines traditional safe-haven assets, including the buck. The GBP/USD pair, however, fails to attract any meaningful buying and lacks bullish conviction amid mixed signals from the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers over the future rate-hike path.

Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data - popularly known as NFP - on Friday. In the meantime, traders on Thursday will take cues from the UK Construction PMI and the US Weekly Initial Jobless claims data. This, along with the broader risk sentiment, might influence the USD price dynamics and produce short-term trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair.

Technical levels to watch

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.2472
Today Daily Change	0.0010
Today Daily Change %	0.08
Today daily open	1.2462

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2248
Daily SMA50	1.2155
Daily SMA100	1.2148
Daily SMA200	1.1899

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2514
Previous Daily Low	1.2433
Previous Weekly High	1.2424
Previous Weekly Low	1.2219
Previous Monthly High	1.2424
Previous Monthly Low	1.1803
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2464
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2483
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2425
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2388
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2344
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2506
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2551
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2588

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

GBP/USD trims gains, back to around 1.3500

GBP/USD now surrenders part of the earlier move to multi-week peaks around 1.3530 and comes close to the 1.3500 support on Monday. Cable’s uptick comes in tandem with decent gains in the Greenback, always amid persistent uncertainty lingering over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran talks.

EUR/USD deflates to 1.1540

EUR/USD begins the week on the back foot, retesting the 1.1540 zone as the NA session draws to a close. The better tone in the US Dollar weighs on the risk complex, sparking the daily correction in spot, always on the back of unabated effervescence in the Middle East.

Gold surges past $4,400, hitting fresh two-month highs

Gold climbs further beyond $4,400, touching its highest level since June 5 in the Asian session on Tuesday. Easing Fed rate hike expectations continue to drive flows towards the non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices back the case for at least one rate hike in 2026, which supports the US Dollar and might cap the precious metal ahead of the crucial US CPI report on Wednesday.

Bitcoin softens on institutional selling – CRV, ICP outperform

The broader cryptocurrency market shows mixed sentiment as Bitcoin (BTC) drops to $64,000 under institutional selling pressure. The Fear and Greed Index at 37, down from 40 the previous day, signals renewed bearish pressure. Meanwhile, Curve DAO (CRV) and Internet Computer (ICP) continue to extend their gains so far this week, emerging as top performers over the last 24 hours.

Breakouts, fakeouts, and the levels that decide what comes next

Friday gave metal bulls something to celebrate, with gold confirming a major breakout and silver finally pushing above its consolidation. Still, Monday’s action is a reminder that breaking a level is only half the job - the market now needs to prove it can hold those gains.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.