GBP/USD steady near 1.3100 amid US holiday-shortened trading week

GBP/USD remains trapped near the 1.3100 handle as momentum slows.
US PPI inflation data is due on Tuesday, but the datapoint has key exceptions.
Markets are staring down the barrel of a slow, holiday-shortened week.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

GBP/USD lost momentum on Monday, holding near 1.3100 as investors grapple with an extremely short week. US markets will be dark on Thursday for the American Thanksgiving holiday, and US markets will also be shuttered early on Friday, effectively constraining Cable traders to just a three-day trading week where markets on both sides of the Atlantic will be open at the same time.

Broad market hopes for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver a third straight interest rate cut in December are holding on the high side on Monday. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in nearly 80% odds of a 25-basis-point rate trim on December 10. There’s still plenty of wiggle room, however, with over 98% odds that the Fed will deliver another rate cut by January 28 if a December cut fails to materialize.

Thanks to the longest US government shutdown in history, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has delayed the release of October and November labor and employment data until after the Fed’s interest rate decision. It will hold the key figures back until December 16. This leaves the Fed with little meaningful data to gauge interest rate moves, and it could vex hopes of a rate cut in the coming weeks.

US Producer Price Index (PPI) data due Tuesday could attract more market attention than usual. Still, the well-defined inflation category specifically excludes foreign-made or imported goods. It will provide little direct information on how the Trump administration’s scattershot tariff policies are affecting business costs beyond indirect price impacts.

GBP/USD daily chart

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

AUD/USD keeps range near mid-0.7100s as USD bulls await US CPI

AUD/USD steadies near mid-0.7100s in the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's sharp decline to an over one-week low. The August PPI report reaffirmed Fed rate-hike bets and boosted the US Dollar on Thursday, which weighed heavily on the pair. However, hawkish RBA expectations limited losses for the Aussie as USD bulls now await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00; looks to US CPI

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00 in the Asian session on Friday after hot Japanese PPI data bolster a more hawkish BoJ repricing and provide fresh impetus to the Japanese Yen. However, the downside appears capped as the US Dollar preserves overnight gains ahead of the latest US consumer inflation data.

Gold rebounds and retargets $4,400

Gold regains composure and trades with decent gains on Friday, managing to refocus in attention to the $4,440 mark per ounce troy. Therefore, the precious metal reverses Thursday’s decline amid a marginal retracement in the US Dollar after the release of August inflation print.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP extends decline as returning ETF inflows fail to lift outlook

Ripple (XRP) falls below $1.33 on Friday, marking the third consecutive day of declines. The token continues to track the broader cryptocurrency market downturn, with investors closely monitoring heightened macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

Weekly focus – The hawks set the tone

Risky assets came under pressure this week as energy prices kept creeping higher and the ECB surprised the markets with a hawkish tone. The price of Brent crude touched USD 110 per barrel on Thursday night, highest since mid-May, as news emerged that the Yemeni Houthis had reached control of key port cities and islands near the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.