|

GBP/USD slides amid US inflation concerns, mixed UK economic outlook

  • GBP/USD drops more than 0.50%, reacting to US data indicating ongoing inflation struggles and a cooling job market.
  • US University of Michigan report shows increased short-term inflation expectations, while consumer sentiment dips below expectations.
  • UK's Autumn Statement focuses on debt reduction and inflation control, with modest GDP growth projections, weighed on the Pound Sterling.

The GBP/USD tumbles during the mid-North American session after economic data from the United States (US) suggested the battle against inflation is not done while the economy continues to decelerate, as sought by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.2456, losing 0.63%.

Sterling falls as US inflation expectations rise and UK Chancellor's Autumn Statement reveals cautious growth projections

A report by the University of Michigan (UoM) witnessed that inflation expectations in the US rose for one year to 4.5% from 4.4% in the previous report, while it stood at 3.2% for a five-year period. Regarding consumer sentiment, Americans remain pessimistic as the index dropped from 63.8 to 61.3 but exceeded forecasts.

Additional data from the US showed that unemployment claims fell last week compared to two weeks ago, suggesting the jobs market is cooling. At the same time, the US Census Bureau showed that Durable Goods Orders plummeted as demand for business equipment slowed.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of six currencies vs. the Greenback, rose sharply by 0.49% and sits at 104.10, underpinned by higher US Treasury bond yields, as a reaction to the UoM inflation expectations poll.

Across the pond, Jeremy Hunt, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, revealed its Autumn Statement. He stated, “We will reduce debt, cut taxes, and reward work.” He emphasized that it would work alongside the Bank of England to get inflation to its 2% target, which, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) would be attained in 2025.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says the combined impact of these measures will reduce inflation and raise GDP. Nevertheless, Hunt added that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by merely 0.7%, compared with the 1.8% forecast in the previous projection in March from the OBR.

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD remains bullish according to the daily chart, though is about to test key support seen at the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2448, which once cleared, could open the door for further losses. The next support would be the 1.2400 figure, followed by the November 17, the latest cycle low at 1.2374. A decisive break would put into play the 50-DMA at 1.2256. On the flip side, if buyers reclaim 1.2500, they could remain hopeful of higher prices, with the first resistance level at 1.2559, the November 21 high.

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price1.2461
Today Daily Change-0.0075
Today Daily Change %-0.60
Today daily open1.2536
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.2294
Daily SMA501.2257
Daily SMA1001.2505
Daily SMA2001.2448
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.2559
Previous Daily Low1.2501
Previous Weekly High1.2506
Previous Weekly Low1.2213
Previous Monthly High1.2337
Previous Monthly Low1.2037
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.2537
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.2523
Daily Pivot Point S11.2505
Daily Pivot Point S21.2474
Daily Pivot Point S31.2446
Daily Pivot Point R11.2563
Daily Pivot Point R21.2591
Daily Pivot Point R31.2622

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds steady near 1.1650 ahead of US data

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.1650 on Friday after facing a rejection once again near seven-week highs. The pair, however, continues to draw support from persistent US Dollar weakness, despite a cautious market mood. Traders now await the US September PCE inflation and UoM Consumer Sentiment data. 

GBP/USD clings to gains in 1.3350 region, eyes on US data

GBP/USD sticks to a positive bias near 1.3350 in the second half of the day on Friday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key US inflation and sentiment data due later in the day. In the meantime, broad-based US Dollar weakness helps the pair stay afloat. 

Gold remains below $4,250 as traders await key US data

Gold gains some positive traction on Friday and trades in the upper half of its weekly range. Dovish Fed expectations continue to undermine the USD and lend support to the commodity. Bulls, however, might opt to wait for the US PCE Price Index before placing aggressive bets.

UoM Consumer Sentiment Index expected to post a mild recovery in December

December’s preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is forecast to have picked up to 52 from a three-year low of 51.0 in November. A stalled labour market and higher price pressures are likely to weigh on consumers’ confidence.

Week ahead – Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low.

Ripple faces persistent bear risks, shrugging off ETF inflows

Ripple is extending its decline for the second consecutive day, trading at $2.06 at the time of writing on Friday. Sentiment surrounding the cross-border remittance token continues to lag despite steady inflows into XRP spot ETFs.