GBP/USD remains steady near 1.3450 ahead of UK labor data

GBP/USD steadies as traders adopt caution ahead of UK labor market data.
The ILO Unemployment Rate may ease to 5%, while Average Earnings, including bonuses, are seen slowing to 4.6%.
President Trump said a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries would take effect on February 1 over Greenland.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

GBP/USD holds ground after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3430 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair moves little as traders adopt caution ahead of labor market data from the United Kingdom (UK) due later in the day. Focus will shift toward the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales figures for December later in the week.

The ILO Unemployment Rate is forecast to ease to 5% from 5.1% in the three months to November, the highest since early 2021. Meanwhile, Average Earnings Including Bonuses are expected to slow to 4.6% from 4.7%.

The GBP/USD pair could further gain ground as the US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure from rising uncertainty over the US–Greenland issue. US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that 10% tariff would be levied on goods from EU members Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland, as well as Britain and Norway, effective February 1, until the US is permitted to purchase Greenland. In response, European Union ambassadors agreed on Sunday to step up efforts to deter the tariffs, while also preparing retaliatory measures if the duties are implemented.

The Greenback could strengthen as US labor market data have delayed expectations for additional Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts until June. Fed officials have indicated limited urgency to ease policy further without clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target. Reflecting this shift, Morgan Stanley analysts revised their 2026 outlook to one rate cut in June followed by another in September, instead of the previously expected cuts in January and April.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

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