GBP/USD Price Forecast: Attracts bids near 20-day EMA as US Dollar corrects

GBP/USD bounces back to near 1.3490 as the three-day US Dollar rally hits a pause.
The US Dollar remains broadly firm amid elevated oil prices.
Investors await the Fed and the BoE monetary policy announcements next week.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair recovers its early losses and turns positive around 1.3490 during the European trading session on Friday. The Cable gains as the US Dollar (USD) corrects after a three-day winning streak. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.70.

The US Dollar comes under pressure ahead of the United States (US) markets opening; however, the broader outlook of the currency remains firm as oil prices remain higher amid fears of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.

Meanwhile, investors await monetary policy announcements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), which will be announced next week. Both the Fed and the BoE are expected to leave interest rates unchanged, and would warn of upside inflation risks amid Middle East conflicts.

Earlier in the day, the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for March came in stronger than expected. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, arrived at 0.7% Month-on-Month (MoM) against 0.2% estimates. In February, the consumer spending measure declined by -0.6%, revised lower from -0.4%.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades higher at around 1.3490 at the press time, keeping a constructive near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3449 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3432 of the 1.3161–1.3870 leg.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 55.2 stays above the neutral 50 line, hinting that bullish momentum remains in place while prices edge closer to the 50% retracement barrier.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3515, followed by the 61.8% level at 1.3599, with further hurdles at 1.3718 and 1.3870. Looking down, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 1.3449, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.3432; a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% level at 1.3328 and the 1.3161 swing low.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (MoM)

The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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