GBP/USD Price Analysis: Slides below 1.2000 amid modest USD strength, ahead of Fed’s Powell

GBP/USD retreats sharply from a four-day top amid the emergence of fresh USD buying.
A break below the 200-day SMA is needed to support prospects for any further downside.
Traders now look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony for some meaningful impetus.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair comes under some renewed selling pressure following an early uptick to the 1.2065 area, or a multi-day top touched earlier this Tuesday and extends the downfall through the mid-European session. The pair slides back below the 1.2000 psychological mark in the last hour and is pressured by the emergence of fresh US Dollar buying.

Growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve will stick to its hawkish stance and keep interest rates higher for longer turn out to be a key factor that continues to act as a tailwind for the USD. Apart from this, looming recession risks further seem to benefit the Greenback's relative safe-haven status amid some repositioning trade ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

Looking at the broader picture, the two-way price moves witnessed over the past four weeks or so constitute the formation of a rectangle on the daily chart. The lower end of the trading band coincides with a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Bearish traders need to wait for a convincing break through the said support, currently pegged around the 1.1910 area, before placing fresh bets.

The GBP/USD pair might then turn vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards retesting the YTD low, around the 1.1840 region touched in January. Some follow-through selling will complete a bearish double-top pattern formation near the 1.2445-1.2450 area and pave the way for deeper losses. The downward trajectory could eventually drag spot prices below the 1.1800 mark, towards the 1.1725 support zone.

On the flip side, the daily swing high, around the 1.2065 area, now seems to act as an immediate barrier ahead of the 1.2100 mark. Any subsequent move-up could attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the 50-day SMA, around the 1.2135-1.2140 region. That said, a sustained strength beyond could lift the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.2200 mark en route to the February 14 peak, around the 1.2265-1.2270 zone.

GBP/USD daily chart

Key levels to watch

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.1989
Today Daily Change	-0.0030
Today Daily Change %	-0.25
Today daily open	1.2019

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2047
Daily SMA50	1.214
Daily SMA100	1.1992
Daily SMA200	1.1913

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2049
Previous Daily Low	1.1993
Previous Weekly High	1.2143
Previous Weekly Low	1.1922
Previous Monthly High	1.2402
Previous Monthly Low	1.1915
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2014
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2028
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.1992
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.1964
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.1936
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2047
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2076
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2103

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD climbs above 1.1600 on US–Iran peace breakthrough

The EUR/USD pair stays firm above 1.1600 in the European session on Monday. The US and Iran have reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, which underpins risk sentiment, supporting the Euro against the US Dollar. Now, the main focus this week remains on the Fed policy decision due on Wednesday.

GBP/USD: US-Iran reaches deal supporting advance beyond 20-day EMA

The GBP/USD pair trades 0.35% higher to near 1.3460 during the late Asian trading session. The Cable extends its week-long advance as market sentiment improves further, following the announcement that the United States and Iran have reached a deal.

Gold gains momentum as US, Iran announce a peace deal

Gold price rises to a weekly high during the early European trading hours on Monday. The precious metal rebounds after the United States and Iran had reached a deal to end their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.

Bitcoin consolidates gains, Ethereum defends support, XRP nears breakout trigger

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple begin the week on a constructive note as the top three cryptocurrencies attempt to extend rebounds after recovering nearly 4%, 2% and 2.6%, respectively. BTC steadies around $65,600, ETH continues to hold firmly above the key $1,700 support, while XRP nears the upper boundary of the falling channel pattern.

President Trump announced that the deal with Iran is complete

President Trump announced that the deal with Iran is complete and he authorises the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and removal of the US Naval blockade. While the agreement is made, it is expected to be signed on Friday to take effect. The Forex market looks stable and could react slowly to the positivity around the news as Iran still expresses its mistrust on the US.

4.2% headline, 0.2% core: Why the Fed's next hike may be targeting the wrong problem

May's CPI put headline inflation at 4.2% on the year, up from 3.8% in April and the hottest reading since April 2023, while core prices rose just 0.2% on the month, undershooting the 0.3% consensus and halving April's pace.