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GBP/USD pressured by late US Dollar comeback and central bank divergence themes

  • GBP/USD losing ground as a comeback in the greenback kicks in. 
  • Eyes turn to the Fed's chairman Powell and US NFP.

GBP/USD is down some 0.2% on the day as we head toward the Wall Street close with the price traveling between 1.1992 and 1.2048. Despite a soft US Dollar at the start of the day as investors awaited testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Nonfarm Payrolls, GBP stayed pressured as central bank divergences play out.  

The Federal Reserve may keep raising interest rates into June while the Bank of England could soon pause policy tightening while the BOE may only have 25bp more of tightening left to do. Key survey data suggest tightness in the UK labour market is abating and the Gross Domestic Product is up next for review.

Analysts at TD Securities argued that it is set to bounce back sharply as many of the special factors that weighed on the December data will reverse. ''A downtick in strike action, a jump in hospital visits, the resumption of the Premier League after the end of the World Cup, and a bounce-back in school attendance likely drove a 0.7% m/m increase in services output. Underlying growth dynamics likely remained weak though,'' the analysts argued. 

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday will be a driver for the US Dollar as will the jobs report. The analysts at Danske Bank are expecting growth to moderate to 220k after the effects of warm weather and heavy seasonal adjustments in January faded. ''Overall, leading indicators suggest that labor market conditions have remained tight amid a recovering growth outlook. The FOMC blackout period will begin on Saturday 11th of March, so Fed still has the option to guide the markets after the Jobs Report.''

Meanwhile, Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March 21-22 meeting, and a 24% likelihood of a 50 basis points increase. 

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price1.2017
Today Daily Change-0.0028
Today Daily Change %-0.23
Today daily open1.2045
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.2047
Daily SMA501.2141
Daily SMA1001.1985
Daily SMA2001.1916
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.2049
Previous Daily Low1.1943
Previous Weekly High1.2143
Previous Weekly Low1.1922
Previous Monthly High1.2402
Previous Monthly Low1.1915
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.2008
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.1983
Daily Pivot Point S11.1975
Daily Pivot Point S21.1906
Daily Pivot Point S31.1869
Daily Pivot Point R11.2081
Daily Pivot Point R21.2118
Daily Pivot Point R31.2188

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
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