GBP/USD posts modest losses below 1.3300 ahead of US NFP release

GBP/USD trades with mild losses around 1.3275 in Friday’s Asian session.
Easing fears of trade tensions supports the US Dollar.
Traders raise bets of further BoE rate cuts in its May policy meeting.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair drifts lower to near 1.3275 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The positive developments surrounding US-China trade talks provide some support to the US Dollar (USD). Investors will closely monitor the US April employment report later on Friday, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings.

Early Friday, China said it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the United States, the first sign since US President Donald Trump raised tariffs in April. The easing of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies and the hope that negotiations could begin between the two sides lift the Greenback and create a headwind for the major pair.

Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that US weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 26 rose by 241,000, compared to the previous week of 223K (revised from 222K). This figure came in above the market consensus of 224K. Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 48.7 in April versus 49.0 prior, stronger than the 48.0 expected.

The Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the UK central bank should consider global trade war risk in the fallout of Trump’s tariffs. Concerns over trade policy uncertainty have prompted traders to raise their bets supporting the BoE to cut interest rates in the policy meeting at its May meeting. Financial markets have priced in nearly a 96% chance that the BoE will cut its rate by a quarter-point to 4.25% when it announces its next move on May 8, according to a Reuters poll.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

BRANDED CONTENT

Finding the right broker for your trading strategy is essential, especially when specific features make all the difference. Explore our selection of top brokers, each offering unique advantages to match your needs.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 as Fed and RBA, inflation tests loom

The Australian Dollar consolidates for the fourth straight day versus the US Dollar, yet registers modest gains of 0.11%, as price action shifts to choppy ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. A busy US economic docket barely moved the markets, while traders eye the release of Australia’s Consumer Price Index.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold rises above $4,050 ahead of Fed rate decision

Gold price jumps to around $4,065 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by lower oil prices. Traders await the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later on Wednesday for signals on ‌the future path of US interest rates.

Ethereum ETFs near record monthly outflows as ETH tests $2,310

Ethereum (ETH) held steady on Tuesday, consolidating at $2,340, just above $2,300 after last week’s decline. Three measures sit within about $18 of each other: ETH’s realized price at $2,310, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,315, and the $2,328 average cost basis of wallets holding 1K-10K ETH.

What can we expect from the RBNZ monetary policy decision?

On Wednesday, October 28 at 01:00 GMT, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, led by Governor Anna Breman, is expected to raise the Overnight Cash Rate by 25 basis points, from 2.75% to 3%, as money markets price in a 100% chance. This would be the third-rate hike by the RBNZ, while the odds for another hike in December are nearly 50%.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.