GBP/USD trades near 1.2850 after recovering recent losses, BoE's Breeden speech awaited

The GBP/USD pair regains its ground ahead of BoE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden's speech.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect the BoE to potentially react strongly at its May meeting with a significant 50 basis point rate cut.
President Trump announced an immediate tariff hike on Chinese imports to 125% shortly after China raised duties.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair recovers its daily losses and continues its winning streak for the third successive session, hovering around 1.2850 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The British Pound (GBP) came under pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected data from the RICS Housing Price Balance, which showed just a 2% increase in March. This marked a significant slowdown from the 20% and 11% gains recorded in January and February, respectively, and fell far short of the anticipated 8% rise—highlighting a stagnation in price growth over recent months.

Further weighing on the British Pound was renewed trade tension between the US and China. US President Donald Trump announced an immediate hike in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, following China’s retaliatory increase in duties on US goods to 84%. This escalating trade war poses a negative backdrop for the United Kingdom (UK), which appears ill-equipped to compete in a price war with China. The tit-for-tat tariff hikes overshadowed earlier efforts to ease trade tensions, where the US had temporarily reduced tariffs to 10% for 90 days to support broader negotiations.

Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor for Financial Stability and MPC member Sarah Breeden will deliver remarks at the Market News International Connect event, "UK Economic and Financial Stability Prospects," held online.

Market sentiment has shifted dovish toward the Bank of England (BoE), with traders increasingly expecting policy easing in response to global economic risks. Deutsche Bank analysts anticipate that the BoE could respond decisively at its May meeting with an aggressive 50 basis point (bps) rate cut.

Meanwhile, the Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting suggested that US policymakers are nearly unanimous in acknowledging the dual threat of persistent inflation and slowing economic growth. The Minutes warned of “difficult tradeoffs” ahead for the Federal Reserve as it navigates these competing challenges.

(This story was corrected on April 10 at 04:45 GMT to say in the title that the pair is trading near 1.2850 after recovering recent losses rather than falling to that level.)

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

BRANDED CONTENT

Choosing a broker that aligns with your trading needs can significantly impact performance. Our list of the best regulated brokers highlights the best options for seamless and cost-effective trading.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

AUD/USD keeps range near mid-0.7100s as USD bulls await US CPI

AUD/USD steadies near mid-0.7100s in the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's sharp decline to an over one-week low. The August PPI report reaffirmed Fed rate-hike bets and boosted the US Dollar on Thursday, which weighed heavily on the pair. However, hawkish RBA expectations limited losses for the Aussie as USD bulls now await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh bets.

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00; looks to US CPI

USD/JPY holds lower ground toward 154.00 in the Asian session on Friday after hot Japanese PPI data bolster a more hawkish BoJ repricing and provide fresh impetus to the Japanese Yen. However, the downside appears capped as the US Dollar preserves overnight gains ahead of the latest US consumer inflation data.

Gold: Gains remain capped by $4,400

Gold regains composure and trades with decent gains on Friday, managing to refocus attention on the $4,440 mark per ounce troy. Therefore, the precious metal reverses Thursday’s decline as the US Dollar alternates gains with losses at the end of the week.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP extends decline as returning ETF inflows fail to lift outlook

Ripple (XRP) falls below $1.33 on Friday, marking the third consecutive day of declines. The token continues to track the broader cryptocurrency market downturn, with investors closely monitoring heightened macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

Weekly focus – The hawks set the tone

Risky assets came under pressure this week as energy prices kept creeping higher and the ECB surprised the markets with a hawkish tone. The price of Brent crude touched USD 110 per barrel on Thursday night, highest since mid-May, as news emerged that the Yemeni Houthis had reached control of key port cities and islands near the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.