|

GBP/USD eyes first death cross since May 2019

  • GBP/USD's long-term averages are about to cross bearish. 
  • The pound was offered in Asia as Prime Minister Johnson was admitted to hospital on for coronavirus-related tests. 

GBP/USD's long-term indicator is about to turn bearish for the first time in 11 months. 

The pair's 50-day average, which topped out in February and began trending south last month, is on track to cross below its 200-day average. That would be the first bearish crossover or death cross since May 2019. 

Seasoned traders would argue that death crosses are big-time lagging indicators and often trap sellers on the wrong side of the market. This time, however, it may invite chart-driven selling, as the 14-day relative strength index is biased bearish. Back in May 2019, it was reporting oversold conditions. 

The macro-environment is also biased bearish, as investors are likely to continue buying US dollars on increasing fears of a prolonged coronavirus-led slowdown in the global economy. 

Pound offered in Asia

The British Pound declined in Asia amid reports that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is admitted to hospital for tests after showing persistent symptoms of the coronavirus.

The official statement read, "On the advice of his doctor, the Prime Minister has tonight been admitted to hospital for tests. This is a precautionary step, as the Prime Minister continues to have persistent symptoms of coronavirus ten days after testing positive for the virus."

With coronavirus tightening its grip around the Downing Street, the pound could remain on the offer in Europe- more so, as the data released early Monday showed the British consumer confidence dropped to the weakest since February 2009. 

At press time, the spot is trading near 1.2235, having opened the week on a negative note at 1.2214. The pair faced rejection at 1.2264. 

Technical levels

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price1.2235
Today Daily Change-0.0027
Today Daily Change %-0.22
Today daily open1.227
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.2224
Daily SMA501.2667
Daily SMA1001.2862
Daily SMA2001.2661
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.2408
Previous Daily Low1.2205
Previous Weekly High1.2476
Previous Weekly Low1.2205
Previous Monthly High1.3201
Previous Monthly Low1.1412
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.2283
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.2331
Daily Pivot Point S11.2181
Daily Pivot Point S21.2092
Daily Pivot Point S31.1978
Daily Pivot Point R11.2384
Daily Pivot Point R21.2497
Daily Pivot Point R31.2587

Author

Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

More from Omkar Godbole
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD struggles below 0.7100, lowest since August 4 amid bullish USD

AUD/USD remains depressed below 0.7100 at the start of a new week, trading near its lowest level since August 4 amid a bullish US Dollar. US bond yields hold near multi-year highs amid inflation risks from higher oil prices and rising bets on a Fed rate hike in October. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, continues to underpin the safe-haven buck and weigh on the currency pair as traders now look to the RBA policy meeting on Tuesday.

USD/JPY climbs back to 157.75 after BoJ minutes amid firm USD

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week, reversing part of Friday's slide driven by speculation that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's relative dovish-leaning tone caps the JPY. Meanwhile, the US Dollar regains traction as the US-Iran standoff supports crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and reaffirming bets for an October Fed rate hike. This further support the pair.

Gold hangs near monthly low, around $4,250 as Fed hike bets and Iran risks underpin USD

Gold attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week, sliding back closer to $4,250 and the lower boundary of the monthly range amid a bearish fundamental backdrop. Firming October Fed rate-hike bets, along with oil-driven inflation risks, keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs, helping the US Dollar regain positive traction and undermining the non-yielding bullion. Bears, however, await weakness below $4,235 before placing fresh bets.

Week ahead: Rate hike bets face a crucial data week
Despite the solid drop from the mid-September high, oil prices remained in the driver’s seat for another week, setting the tone in financial markets. Six months have passed since the late-February start of the US-Iran conflict, and there is still no breakthrough in the stalled talks, despite pressure from regional leaders and the rest of the world.
After the Trump Xi summit, markets are trading three clocks
The summit delivered time, not a deal. Trade, oil and chips now each run to a date, and the macro backdrop matters more than the pageantry. Markets wanted a deal and got a calendar date instead. Xi Jinping left Washington on Friday after tea at the White House and a tour of the National Archives.
Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.