|

GBP/USD bears flirt with daily low, just above 1.2100 mark amid stronger USD

  • GBP/USD witnessed heavy selling on Friday amid a strong pickup in the USD demand.
  • The uncertainty over the size of the Fed rate hike prompts some USD short-covering.
  • The BoE’s gloomy economic outlook undermines the GBP and contributes to the slide.

The GBP/USD pair comes under renewed selling pressure on Friday and drops to the 1.2100 neighbourhood during the early North American session.

The US dollar makes a solid comeback on the last day of the week and moves away from its lowest level since late June touched the previous day. This turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair, which fails to benefit from mostly better-than-expected UK macroeconomic releases.

The Preliminary GDP report, however, showed that the UK economy contracted by 0.1% in Q2 as compared to the 0.8% rise in the previous quarter. The dismal figure validates the Bank of England's outlook that a prolonged recession would start in the fourth quarter and acts as a headwind for the British pound.

The USD, on the other hand, witnesses a short-covering move amid the uncertainty over the size of the next rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Data released this week showed signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US and forced investors to trim bets for a 75 bps Fed rate hike move in the September meeting.

That said, the recent hawkish comments by several Fed officials suggest that the US central bank would stick to its policy tightening path. This, in turn, prompts traders to lighten their USD bearish bets, though a combination of factors could cap gains and help limit the downside for the GBP/USD pair.

Nevertheless, spot prices reverse a major part of the weekly gains and remain at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. Next on tap would be the release of the Preliminary Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index, which might influence the buck and produce some trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair.

Technical levels to watch

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price1.212
Today Daily Change-0.0082
Today Daily Change %-0.67
Today daily open1.2202
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.2085
Daily SMA501.2146
Daily SMA1001.2435
Daily SMA2001.292
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.2249
Previous Daily Low1.2182
Previous Weekly High1.2294
Previous Weekly Low1.2003
Previous Monthly High1.2246
Previous Monthly Low1.176
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.2208
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.2224
Daily Pivot Point S11.2173
Daily Pivot Point S21.2144
Daily Pivot Point S31.2106
Daily Pivot Point R11.224
Daily Pivot Point R21.2278
Daily Pivot Point R31.2307

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD retreats below 1.1750 on modest USD recovery

EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades below 1.1750 on Friday. Although trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, the modest recovery seen in the US Dollar causes the pair to edge lower. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases.

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction, stabilizes above 1.3450

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and moves sideways above 1.3450 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold climbs toward $4,400 following deep correction

Gold reverses its direction and advances toward $4,400 after suffering heavy losses amid profit-taking before the New Year holiday. Growing expectations for a dovish Fed policy and persistent geopolitical risks seem to be helping XAU/USD stretch higher.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).