Share:

The recent GBP underperformance is largely due to a less hawkish BoE and sluggish domestic activity data but its underperformance is unlikely to continue in the light of a rebound in global risk sentiment and improving domestic dynamics, economists at HSBC report.

GBP to benefit from the UK’s improving external balance

“With inflation in the UK having likely peaked and potentially set to decelerate more than consensus expects, a less aggressive tightening tone from the BoE now may mean a less abrupt turn of stance later in the year, which may end up becoming a marginal positive for the GBP in the months ahead. A shift towards better-than-expected domestic data should also be positive for the GBP.”

“The UK’s external rebalancing continues at pace, due to the combination of a cheaper currency and higher interest rates. Indeed, the UK’s trade balance for 3Q22 showed the narrowest deficit since December 2021. This may bode well for the GBP.”

“GBP has a very strong tie to global risk appetite in recent years. A bottoming out in global growth dynamics (compared to excessively pessimistic expectations), as well as a peak in global interest rates on the back of softening inflation pressure could allow the GBP to strengthen against the USD in an environment where risk appetite looks less febrile.”

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content


Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD consolidates gains above 1.0800, awaits Fed Minutes

EUR/USD consolidates gains above 1.0800, awaits Fed Minutes

EUR/USD is holding gains above 1.0800 early Wednesday, having hit two-week highs on Tuesday. The US Dollar remains broadly weak, despite a mixed market mood, as investors weigh Fed rate cut bets and US government shutdown risks ahead of the Fed Minutes. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD clings to gains above 1.2600, all eyes on FOMC Minutes

GBP/USD clings to gains above 1.2600, all eyes on FOMC Minutes

GBP/USD is holding the renewed upside above 1.2600 in early Europe on Wednesday. The pair continues to draw support from hawkish comments from BoE Governor Bailey and an extended US Dollar weakness. The focus now shifts to the Fed Minutes, BoE- and Fed-speak.

GBP/USD News

Gold price bulls turn cautious near 50-day SMA, one-week top ahead of FOMC minutes

Gold price bulls turn cautious near 50-day SMA, one-week top ahead of FOMC minutes

Gold price (XAU/USD) touches over a one-week high on Wednesday, albeit struggles to build on the momentum and remains capped near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) through the early European session.

Gold News

Bitcoin is 23% away from ATHs, but retail is still not here, why?

Bitcoin is 23% away from ATHs, but retail is still not here, why?

Bitcoin’s journey so far has been nothing short of shocking. From ETF approval to countries warming up to crypto regulation, the crypto landscape seems to have changed quite a bit.

Read more

Lots of dovish talk going around

Lots of dovish talk going around

The conversation around lower rates has been a theme this week after US data disappointed, Canada CPI came in soft, BoE Bailey offered up dovish comments, and China slashed rates.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures