GBP/JPY trades with positive bias above mid-202.00s ahead of UK macro data

GBP/JPY attracts some dip-buyers on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through.
The divergent BoE-BoJ policy expectations act as a headwind for spot prices.
Traders now look to the UK macro data dump for some meaningful impetus.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/JPY cross turns positive for the second straight day following an Asian session dip to sub-202.00 levels and climbs to a fresh daily top in the last hour. Spot prices, however, remain below the overnight swing high and currently trade just above the mid-202.00s as traders await the UK macro data dump before placing directional bets.

The UK economic docket highlights the release of the monthly GDP print. Against the backdrop of this week's weaker UK labor market report, a disappointing reading would further fuel speculations that the Bank of England (BoE) could continue cutting interest rates gradually. This, in turn, might weigh heavily on the British Pound (GBP) and prompt fresh selling around the GBP/JPY cross.

Meanwhile, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will stick to its policy normalization path and hike rates again by the year-end act as a tailwind for the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, in turn, might cap the upside for spot prices. However, domestic political uncertainty might create a challenge for the BoJ to tighten further, which keeps a lid on the JPY's intraday move up and supports the GBP/JP cross.

Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the corrective slide from the highest level since July 2024, touched earlier this month, has run its course. Meanwhile, bearish traders might wait for sustained weakness below the 201.50 region before placing fresh bets around the GBP/JPY cross and positioning for deeper losses.

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (MoM)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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