GBP/JPY set to end week subdued just above 163.00 as focus turns to next week’s BoE meeting

It's been a quiet session for GBP/JPY, with the pair nudging slightly higher back above the 163.00 level, but with the upside remaining contained for a second session running by the 21-Day Moving Average, which currently sits at 163.40. Global yields have risen on Friday, wth recent upside in US yields as a result of evidence of stronger than expected wage growth in Q1 of this year, thus preventing the yen from mounting a comeback.

Nonetheless, after Thursday’s post-dovish BoJ meeting battering, the yen bears seem fatigued and content to see out the week in subdued fashion. Despite recent yen weakness that has seen GBP/JPY bounce over 2.0% from earlier sub-160.00 weekly lows, the pair still looks set to end the week lower by roughly 1.1%.

UK growth fears as evidence build of economic weakness amid the country’s worst cost-of-living squeeze in a decade were front and centre this week. While the BoE is expected to raise interest rates by a further 25 bps next week, the bank is expected to further moderate its tone on the need for further interest rate hikes amid growing concern about the economy.

This shift in expectations was attributed as a key driver behind this week’s broad GBP weakness. Aside from next week’s BoE meeting, bond yields and risk appetite will remain key drivers of the pair. While rising fears about global growth and recent weakness in risk appetite argue for GBP/JPY to continue pulling back next week, if hawkish central banks spark further upside in global bond yields (the Fed is going to lift interest rates by 50 bps next week), that could further weaken the yen’s appeal.