GBP/JPY remains depressed post-UK CPI; holds above 212.00 as focus remains on BoJ

GBP/JPY attracts some sellers on Wednesday amid a modest JPY strength.
Spot prices move little following the release of the UK consumer inflation.
The downside seems limited as traders await the BoJ decision on Friday.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/JPY cross extends the previous day's late pullback from the vicinity of mid-213.00s and trades with a negative bias on Wednesday, snapping a two-day winning streak. Spot prices remain depressed around the 212.20-212.15 region through the first half of the European session and move little following the release of UK consumer inflation figures.

The UK Office for National Statistics reported that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% in December, compared to the previous month's reading of 3.2% and above the 3.3% increase expected. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, was up 3.2% on a yearly basis, matching expectations and November's print. The data makes it unlikely that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates at its policy meeting early next month, though it does little to provide any meaningful impetus to the British Pound (GBP) or the GBP/JPY cross.

Market participants are still pricing in the possibility that the UK central bank will lower borrowing costs at least two more times in 2026. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to prospects for further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which is seen as a key factor behind the Japanese Yen's (JPY) relative outperformance against its British counterpart. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-off environment, fueled by rising tensions over Greenland and geopolitical uncertainties, benefits the safe-haven JPY and exerts some downward pressure on the GBP/JPY cross.

The JPY bulls, however, lack conviction and opt to wait for more cues about the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the BoJ. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the outcome of a two-day BoJ policy meeting on Friday. In the meantime, concerns about Japan's fiscal health, amid Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary policies, could act as a headwind for the JPY and help limit the downside for the GBP/JPY cross. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before traders start positioning for any meaningful depreciating move in the near term.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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